Against the long sweep of economic history, the current moment is special. Living standards advanced so rapidly and across so many countries over the last decade that it is difficult to think of parallels—even the deepest recession since the Great Depression did not halt progress.
In Juggernaut, Uri Dadush and William Shaw explore the rise of developing countries and how they will reshape the economic landscape. Dadush and Shaw project that the global economy will more than triple over the next forty years and the advance of a large group of developing countries—home to most of the world's population but seen as supplicants rather than trendsetters less than a generation ago—will drive this improvement. The authors systematically examine the effects of this seismic shift on the main avenues of globalization—trade, finance, migration, and the global commons—and identify the policy options available to leaders in managing the transformation.
In the years to come, the rise of emerging economies will likely enhance prosperity but also create great tensions that could slow the process or even stop it in its tracks. Juggernaut calls for leadership by the largest countries in managing these tensions, and underscores the need to cultivate a "global conscience."
Uri Dadush is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as the director of global prospects, director of international trade, and director of economic policy at the World Bank. He was also president of the Economist Intelligence Unit and a consultant at McKinsey and Company.
William Shaw is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. He previously served as lead economist in the World Bank research department and was the main author or co-author of several of the institution's flagship reports. He is a consultant to the World Bank, the African Development Bank, and other organizations.
The Carnegie International Economics Program monitors and analyzes short- and long-term trends in the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, trade, commodities, and capital flows, and draws out policy implications. The current focus of the Program is the global financial crisis and the policy issues raised. Among other research, the Program examines the ramifications of the rising weight of developing countries in the global economy.
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