Diplomatic Confusion Around the Syrian Crisis

Source: Getty
Op-Ed Hurriyet Daily News
Summary
The diplomatic confusion around the Syrian crisis is huge. Analysts and columnists are at a loss to make any sense out of it, and maybe diplomats are too.
Related Media and Tools
 

The diplomatic confusion around the Syrian crisis is huge, analysts and columnists are at a loss to make any sense out of it, and maybe diplomats are, too.

Within Syria, the situation is relatively simple to understand: the country is divided between the regime and various rebel brigades, the Bashar al-Assad regime has no prospect of regaining political legitimacy over the entire country, while the civilian opposition is unable to unify its positions. The only certainty is that the jihadists have the strongest fighters and that they will extract a political price from this situation when the time comes.

The al-Assad regime is alive thanks to the Russian position, which itself has a lot more to do with Russia’s standing in world affairs than the Syrian crisis. One can even claim that Russia’s interests in the region cannot be served by a surviving al-Assad regime anymore. China is aligned with Russia for its own bilateral reasons.

The European Union has had the good idea of self-marginalizing itself through the mechanisms emanating from the Lisbon treaty. Even the “big two” (France and the United Kingdom) do not matter much on their own, because the weakness of the EU system as a whole (which they engineered) prevents them from carrying the entire 27 with them.

Qatar’s and Saudi Arabia’s policy of arming some rebel factions does favor the rise of the most radical of Islamists movements in northern Syria, which runs against the future stability of the country and against Western interests. Turkey itself has long had a fluctuating policy; it first embraced Bashar al-Assad, then called for his removal and then began training rebels even as it suffered from the spillover effects on its own territory. Turkey’s position is now firmly under the U.S. umbrella, particularly since the Patriot missiles deployment earlier this year and the Washington meetings last month.

As for Israel, it is prepared for any type of contingency and will defend its vital interests according to its own agenda and strong military capabilities. Iran and its proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah, are playing with fire since they have a lot to lose in the downfall of al-Assad. In addition, Iran has ulterior motives to oppose Western powers.

Finally, the U.S. has shown an unprecedented risk aversion in the Middle East as a result of its successive engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. For Washington, the stakes are, however, wider than just Syria; they touch upon the security of Israel, Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the worldwide trade in oil and gas.

Does this leave any prospect for the Geneva II conference supposed to be held in June? Little, it seems. The conference will be awfully difficult to put together for a host of reasons. The first attempt will probably end up in miserable confusion. Subsequently, back-channel meetings will take place until a realization is made that a compromise solution, however shaky, is better than the current descent into inferno.

The main difficulties are well-known. The Syrian civilian opposition is utterly weak and divided, leaving the political and military clout to the Islamists. One underlying assumption is that elections can be held in Syria, but this is a non-starter since the country doesn’t have any credible electoral system, not even voters’ lists.

Yet, with a push from Moscow, a “compromise” could be found between the opposition and “reasonable elements” of the regime. This will resemble Tunisia and Egypt on the day after revolution: interesting on paper but not sustainable. Later on, should elections be held, the outcome is more than predictable: the winners will be the Islamists. Unless Syria is partitioned.

This looks awful indeed. Yet, the only way forward at this stage is more diplomatic footwork between the U.N. Security Council’s “permanent five” and renewed efforts at back-channel (or “track two”) diplomacy. Until all the parties realize where the narrow path serving their combined interests lies.

This article was originally published in Hurriyet Daily News

End of document

Comments (2)

 
 
  • Wim Roffel
    I don't know what to make from the sentence "Turkey’s position is now firmly under the U.S. umbrella".

    If the author believes that the Turkish position is aligned with US interests he is utterly wrong. Erdogan thinks only of his own interests and these are mainly Sunni sectarian: he has openly asked for replacement of Assad by a Sunni.

    The best characterization I encountered of Erdogan was that of a narcissist emperor who can't stand any opposition. Whenever he faces opposition, whether the Israeli attack on the Mavi Marmara, Assad's refusal to implement the reforms Erdogan asked or the recent Taksim protests, he reacts with the same disproportional rage.

    The author claims that if elections are held the Islamists will win. I think that depends. Syria has a solid secular tradition and people have been able to see how intolerant Islamists can be. It should be noted that the rebels insist that Assad should not take part in an election (probably because he might attract many votes) and that they refused to take part in elections held by Assad (yes, there were elections!!!).
     
     
    Reply to this post

     
    Close Panel
  • Borderline
    One thing is sure, the events in Syria are changing at the speed of light. On June 3th the day this article was published, we though the rebels were slowly gaining traction against Assad regime, and the US would never overcome its aversion to another armed conflict in the Middle East or that Mr. Putin was serious about a political solution. One month later the conflict has a regional label with Hezbollah and Iran direct intervention, Mr. Assad with the wind on his back have the rebels running in the opposite direction, the US is hurriedly arming the rebels, and Mr. Putin loyalty behind Assad is beyond any doubt. In the meantime, millions of Syrians are facing starvation, diseases, and the likelihood to be killed in their own homes. The suffering of Syrian refugees is even more difficult to explain. In the end, there will be no winners only losers. The biggest lose however, is the TRUST we had that we were safe in our own country, in our own homes or trust our political and democratic institutions, and by the same token our political leaders.
     
     
    Reply to this post

     
    Close Panel
Source http://carnegieeurope.eu/2013/06/03/diplomatic-confusion-around-syrian-crisis/g9r5

More from The Global Think Tank

In Fact

 

45%

of the Chinese general public

believe their country should share a global leadership role.

30%

of Indian parliamentarians

have criminal cases pending against them.

140

charter schools in the United States

are linked to Turkey’s Gülen movement.

2.5–5

thousand tons of chemical weapons

are in North Korea’s possession.

92%

of import tariffs

among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru have been eliminated.

$2.34

trillion a year

is unaccounted for in official Chinese income statistics.

37%

of GDP in oil-exporting Arab countries

comes from the mining sector.

72%

of Europeans and Turks

are opposed to intervention in Syria.

90%

of Russian exports to China

are hydrocarbons; machinery accounts for less than 1%.

13%

of undiscovered oil

is in the Arctic.

17

U.S. government shutdowns

occurred between 1976 and 1996.

40%

of Ukrainians

want an “international economic union” with the EU.

120

million electric bicycles

are used in Chinese cities.

60–70%

of the world’s energy supply

is consumed by cities.

58%

of today’s oils

require unconventional extraction techniques.

67%

of the world's population

will reside in cities by 2050.

50%

of Syria’s population

is expected to be displaced by the end of 2013.

18%

of the U.S. economy

is consumed by healthcare.

81%

of Brazilian protesters

learned about a massive rally via Facebook or Twitter.

32

million cases pending

in India’s judicial system.

1 in 3

Syrians

now needs urgent assistance.

370

political parties

contested India’s last national elections.

70%

of Egypt's labor force

works in the private sector.

70%

of oil consumed in the United States

is for the transportation sector.

20%

of Chechnya’s pre-1994 population

has fled to different parts of the world.

58%

of oil consumed in China

was from foreign sources in 2012.

$536

billion in goods and services

traded between the United States and China in 2012.

$100

billion in foreign investment and oil revenue

have been lost by Iran because of its nuclear program.

4700%

increase in China’s GDP per capita

between 1972 and today.

$11

billion have been spent

to complete the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran.

2%

of Iran’s electricity needs

is all the Bushehr nuclear reactor provides.

78

journalists

were imprisoned in Turkey as of August 2012 according to the OSCE.

Stay in the Know

Enter your email address in the field below to receive the latest Carnegie analysis in your inbox!

Personal Information
 
 
Carnegie Europe
 
Carnegie Europe Rue du Congrès, 15 1000 Brussels, Belgium Phone: +32 2 735 56 50 Fax: +32 2736 6222
Please note...

You are leaving the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy's website and entering another Carnegie global site.

请注意...

您离开卡内基 - 清华全球政策中心网站,进入另一个卡内基全球网站。