New climate and energy policies are proliferating in the wake of commitments made at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris. As a result, the foundations of future oil demand will be shaken—with potentially dramatic impacts on oil prices and price volatility in the decades ahead.

Carnegie Europe in partnership with the European Climate Foundation convened over 100 experts from the European institutions, EU member states, think tanks, NGOs, and the private sector to explore future oil market scenarios. Phil Summerton, director of Cambridge Econometrics, presented a new study commissioned by the European Climate Foundation that examines the impacts of evolving policies, technologies, and security landscapes on oil prices, as well as broader economic effects.

This event featureed two working sessions on the geopolitics of oil security and on policy choices for the energy union, with keynote remarks by Pawel Olejarnik, energy analyst for the World Energy Outlook at the International Energy Agency, and Mechthild Wörsdörfer, director for Energy Policy at the Directorate General for Energy of the European Commission.

Podcast

Agenda

3:00 – 3:30 p.m.

WELCOME AND REGISTRATION

3:30 – 3:40 p.m.

OPENING REMARKS
Christoph Wolff, managing director, European Climate Foundation

3:40 – 4:00 p.m.

THE OIL MARKET FUTURES STUDY
Presented by:
Phil Summerton, director, Cambridge Econometrics

4:00 – 5:00 p.m.

SESSION ONE | GEOPOLITICS OF OIL SECURITY
With keynote remarks by:
Pawel Olejarnik, energy analyst, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency

Speakers:
Maciej Kolaczkowski, community lead, Oil and Gas Industry, Energy Industries, World Economic Forum
Rem Korteweg, senior research fellow, Centre for European Reform
Michael Rühle, head, Energy Security Section, NATO

Moderator:
Sara Stefanini, climate and energy reporter, POLITICO Europe

5:00 – 6:00 p.m.

SESSION TWO | POLICY CHOICES FOR THE ENERGY UNION
With keynote remarks by:
Mechthild Wörsdörfer, director, Energy Policy, Directorate General for Energy, European Commission

Speakers:
Henrik Bliddal, director, Science and Technology Committee, NATO Parliamentary Assembly
Jos Dings, executive director, Policy Team, Transport and Environment
Severin Fisher, senior researcher, Center for Strategic Studies, ETH Zurich
Georg Zachmann, senior fellow, Bruegel

Moderator:
David Livingston, associate, Energy and Climate Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

6:00 – 7:00 p.m.

COCKTAIL RECEPTION