Just before Christmas, I warned Remainers not to get too excited about a poll showing a ten point lead for staying in the EU. The opposite now applies. In his latest column for the Sunday Times, Dominic Lawson reports a YouGov poll showing a Leave lead widening from two to nine points in the past three months. Once again, I doubt whether there has been any real shift in public opinion.

The poll Lawson cites was one of YouGov’s Eurotracker series. It is conducted monthly, but this particular question is asked less frequently. This is how it is worded:

At this point would you prefer that Britain stays in or leaves the European Union?

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This op-ed was originally published by Prospect Magazine.