Just before Christmas, I warned Remainers not to get too excited about a poll showing a ten point lead for staying in the EU. The opposite now applies. In his latest column for the Sunday Times, Dominic Lawson reports a YouGov poll showing a Leave lead widening from two to nine points in the past three months. Once again, I doubt whether there has been any real shift in public opinion.

Peter Kellner
Kellner is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.
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The poll Lawson cites was one of YouGov’s Eurotracker series. It is conducted monthly, but this particular question is asked less frequently. This is how it is worded:

At this point would you prefer that Britain stays in or leaves the European Union?

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This op-ed was originally published by Prospect Magazine.