The future for Kyrgyzstan remains unclear. The country could end up on the verge of a coup d’etat once again. Furthermore, the nature of the political systems in other Central Asian states creates the risk that conflicts such as those recently seen in Kyrgyzstan could break out in neighboring countries.
The recent events in Kyrgyzstan – the overthrow of Kyrgyz President Bakiyev, followed by interethnic clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, and the recent referendum where voters approved a plan to give the parliament greater powers – were the subjects of discussion at a seminar held at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Speakers included Arkady Dubnov, international analyst at Vremya Novostei newspaper, and Carnegie’s Martha Brill Olcott. The event was moderated by Carnegie’s Alexey Malashenko.
The events in Kyrgyzstan showed that neither the United States nor Russia is ready to play a real leadership role in Central Asia, said Dubnov. Neither is willing to take on responsibility for maintaining stability in the region. This seriously undermines their claims to leadership and exclusive interests in the region.
Dubnov outlined some of the key factors that determined Moscow’s position on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek clashes:
Tashkent’s cautious position during the violence in Kyrgyzstan resulted from fears among the Uzbek leadership that Uzbekistan could end up engaged in ethnic conflict with Kyrgyzstan, Dubnov stated. However, Uzbek President Islam Karimov succeeded in using the situation to his full advantage. He argued that only by taking heavy handed action, as the Uzbek authorities did in Andijan in 2005, is it possible to prevent public chaos and anarchy. This gave Karimov the sanction he sought for his actions in 2005.
Ultimately, Karimov used the situation in Kyrgyzstan as proof of his belief that there never was and never would be any “island of democracy in Central Asia” – something that Kyrgyzstan had attempted to position itself as.
Kyrgyzstan’s future depends on the ability of the authorities to restore public order, Olcott said. This will require:
Olcott warned that Kyrgyzstan is at risk of ending up on the verge of a new coup. The following factors heighten this threat:
Following the speakers’ presentations, the participants at the event discussed the future for Central Asia. Alexander Kadyrbayev of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies predicted that conflicts similar to what occurred in Kyrgyzstan will become more frequent, as they are a product of the political system that has taken shape in Central Asian countries since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kadyrbayev underscored that the unhealthy power systems dominated by the main ethnic groups in the specific countries need to be prepared for these kinds of events. Sergey Abashin, also of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, said that the events in Kyrgyzstan have set off long-term negative processes by demonstrating the Uzbek community’s problems not just in Kyrgyzstan but throughout Central Asia.
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