Publications
Allies Everywhere Feeling Snubbed by President Obama
Rather than expending energy solidifying relations with long term allies, the Obama administration has focused its foreign policy efforts on improving relations with its competitors and adversaries.
Middle East Peace–START–Iran–Reset:
Clinton’s Trip to Moscow
U.S. Secretary of State Clinton leaves for Moscow for a Quartet meeting on efforts to revive Israeli–Palestinian peace talks. She will also meet with President Medvedev to address the bilateral agenda, not least the successor agreement to START and Iran's nuclear program.
Israel’s Challenge to the U.S.
The announcement of new construction in East Jerusalem that interrupted U.S. Vice President Biden’s trip to Israel to reinvigorate peace negotiations reflects the strained relations between Israel and the United States and how much remains to be done before Israeli-Palestinian negotiations can lead to real progress.
What Comes Next in Yemen? Al-Qaeda, the Tribes, and State-Building
There are limits to how much foreign intervention can accomplish in Yemen. To overcome its daunting security, economic, and political challenges, Yemen’s political system needs to become less centralized and more inclusive.
Bad Company—Lashkar e-Tayyiba and the Growing Ambition of Islamist Militancy in Pakistan
Continued Pakistani support for the terrorist group Lashkar e-Tayyiba (LeT) threatens to undermine the delicate peace between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan and plunge the region into conflict, with significant consequences for American interests abroad.
A Nation on the Brink
Al-Qaeda is not the only factor threatening Yemen’s stability. Water shortages, collapsing oil supplies, war, refugees, pirates, and poverty all put the country at risk of becoming a failed state.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Islamist Participation in a Closing Political Environment
By scaling back its political engagement to focus on a traditional religious, educational, and social agenda, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leaving behind an even greater lack of political competition in the country.
Iraqi Elections Show America's Wrong Ideas about Democracy's Power
Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary election will not bring about any decisive changes. Elections do not cause significant power shifts; they can only reflect the power shifts that have already taken place.
Beware of Inflation Fundamentalism
As the Euro crisis continues to play out in Greece and other weak Euro area members, the time has come for policy makers to consider moderately raising their inflation targets.
On Foreign Policy, Obama and the GOP Find Room for Agreement
In spite of the general perception that partisanship is dividing the U.S. government, a broad bipartisan consensus is emerging on issues of foreign policy, particularly towards Afghansitan, Iraq, and Iran.
NATO Must Adapt to New Challenges
Two decades after the end of the Cold War, NATO must demonstrate that it can adapt to the security challenges of the 21st century, including nuclear weapons proliferation, terrorism and cyber-warfare.
Turkey: Regime in Crisis
Turkey's constitution, imposed by the military in 1982, must be redrafted if the country is to move towards a more responsive political system and avoid repeating the cycle of paralysis followed by heavy-handed military and judicial intervention.
Greek Crisis: A Dire Warning From Argentina and Latvia
History shows that while leaving the Euro area and defaulting would have disastrous implications for Greece and Euro area, it may become the best of bad options if Greece does not receive adequate support from the EU.
Russia's Policy in the Middle East: Prospects for Consensus and Conflict with the United States
By the beginning of the twenty-first century, Russia had recovered from its domestic crisis, and so had its global ambitions. While Moscow’s principal interests still lie mostly toward the West, the Middle East is back on Moscow’s radar screen and Russia’s withdrawal from the region has been reversed.
Managing Vulnerability
The goal of nuclear superiority is unattainable. Instead, the United States can enhance its security by giving nuclear-armed adversaries strong incentives for restraint in a crisis.
Egypt: From Semi-Authoritarianism to One-Dimensionality
Over the next year, Egypt will hold three important elections, none of which stand any chance of redistributing power in the country. Egypt needs long-term democratic reforms, and the United States can play an effective role in promoting those reforms.
China is Misread by Bulls and Bears Alike
While China may experience a painful financial contraction as it increases private consumption, even a dramatic slowdown of Chinese growth will not prevent China’s share of global GDP from rising.
U.S.-Russia Balancing Act
While Russian leaders support the idea of a world free of nuclear weapons in theory, the Russian security community is still committed to the principle of nuclear deterrence.
Last Shot in Afghanistan
The fundamental driving force of the insurgency is not economic or tribal but political, and long-term stability in Afghanistan depends on creating an open, transparent process to renegotiate the political structure of the nation in a way that includes the insurgency without betraying the Afghan people.
Europe’s Test—What Greece’s Debt Crisis Means for the World
Greece’s economic imbalances are neither unprecedented nor — with help — unmanageable. Given the business, banking, and political interests in a positive outcome, Greece will either rescue itself, or be rescued.