The political conditions for a resolution of the war in Donbas are deteriorating on all sides.
Tbilisi and Moscow are on the verge of finalizing a transit agreement they initially made in 2011. But political fears could still sink the deal, and its big economic benefits.
Europe’s commitment to the Eastern Partnership region has been cemented by Russian aggression. Yet, for internal reasons, the EU is trying to avoid the costs linked to the countries’ integration.
Moscow is engaged in a hybrid war against the West. The West’s response amounts to muddling through.
NATO’s forward presence is meant to discourage Russia from escalating and to give Moscow reasons to seek a nonmilitary solution. Will this strategy succeed?
Russia’s interference in American and European elections constitutes a serious offense. But by treating Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies as an existential threat, Western leaders are playing directly into the Kremlin’s hands, and validating its false narrative about Russia’s place in the world.
EU association deals with Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova have proven to be key drivers of reform in all three countries. The emphasis should now be on implementation, not simply legislative adoption.
A new survey spells out the disrupted links to the rest of Ukraine, limited travel by Crimeans to other parts of Russia, a near-complete integration into the Russian media sphere, and continuing repression of the Tatars.
Moscow has opted for a low-cost, opportunistic approach in the Western Balkans that shifts most of the burden to local actors.
A century after the October Revolution, the Bolshevik legacy is too close for the people of the South Caucasus to evaluate properly. No one wants to see that era return, but everyone comes from it.