On the evening of November 15, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was driven in a white BMW to the Hilton Hotel in downtown Brisbane, the capital of the Australian state of Queensland.
While other leaders of the G20 group of leading economies were finessing the final communiqué of their summit, Merkel went on to spend four hours in the hotel with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis.
Their respective foreign policy advisers—Merkel’s Christoph Heusgen and Putin’s Yuri Ushakov—were not admitted, nor were note takers or interpreters. Merkel has fluent Russian, Putin fluent German. Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, joined the discussion halfway through.
This was Merkel’s second lengthy meeting with Putin in just four weeks. On October 17, she met him in Milan. That yielded no results. Putin was not willing to give up eastern Ukraine.
Between Milan and Brisbane, three things have happened that are bound to have a serious impact on European security and the EU’s strategy toward its Eastern neighbors.
The first is that on November 12, NATO reported that Russia had sent in military convoys to the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, which Russia denied. There is now a consensus that the fragile ceasefire agreed to between Ukraine, Russia, the rebels, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Minsk on September 19 is in tatters. Russia is again on the offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Second, it became clear that Europe faces the prospect of a long standoff with Putin. Just consider Russia’s many incursions into the Baltic states’ airspace over the past few weeks. It’s as if Moscow is testing NATO’s resolve to defend its allies. If so, the conflict is becoming a dangerous battle of wills between NATO and Russia.
As it is, Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine has undermined Europe’s post–Cold War security architecture. Those security structures were based on a cooperative relationship with Russia. That partnership no longer exists. European leaders will have to deal with that reality sooner rather than later.
The third significant event is that at the G20 summit in Brisbane, Russia earned the wrath of Japan and Australia, which shows that criticism of the Kremlin is not confined to North America and Europe.
Tokyo and Canberra are disgusted over Russia’s attitude toward the (almost forgotten) downing of Malaysia Airlines flight 17. Along with the United States, Australia and Japan signed a joint statement in the margins of the G20 summit in which they condemned Russia’s position.
“The three leaders resolved to tackle pressing issues such as . . . opposing Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea and its actions to destabilise eastern Ukraine, and bringing to justice those responsible for the downing of Flight MH17,” according to the statement.
Indeed, the criticism by G20 leaders of Putin’s actions was so unremitting in Brisbane that he left the summit early. He said he needed sleep because he had to work on Monday morning.
#Merkel's 38 phone conversations with #Putin have only deepened mistrust.Tweet This
The question now is what to do with such unity. Much depends on Merkel.
Merkel is not willing to give Putin the chance to save face, which some European diplomats and leaders might like to get the Ukraine dossier off their desks. She simply does not trust him. Merkel’s 38 telephone conversations with Putin have only deepened that mistrust.
Her concern is not only about Ukraine or about Russian meddling in Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova. Merkel’s efforts to persuade Putin to exert some influence over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have also come to naught. To this day, Russia continues to supply weapons to Syria and support its leader unequivocally. So much for Berlin and Europe believing that Russia is an indispensable partner for resolving other crises.
Yet because Merkel has been the West’s indisputable interlocutor with Putin, she is saddled with one of her biggest foreign policy and security challenges since becoming chancellor nine years ago.
She is not prepared to accept Putin’s annexation of Crimea or his continuing interference in eastern Ukraine. Yet the West has ruled out any military action to push Russia out of Ukraine. Instead, Merkel is prepared to push for more sanctions on Russia even as in Brisbane, Putin warned of further retaliatory measures.
The countermeasures Moscow has already imposed against several European countries do hurt, especially in Poland. But Merkel believes that German industry, and Europe as a whole, must be willing to pay the price for Putin’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity—not to speak of Georgia’s. Despite misgivings by Finland, Italy, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic about the sanctions, Europe is standing firm.
Recent sanctions against #Russia have shown the diplomatic path is not working.Tweet This
At the G20 summit, Merkel said that the EU foreign ministers would consider on November 17 adding Russian separatists in Ukraine to the list of individuals subject to asset freezes and travel bans. Putin will hardly shudder at that.
The recent bout of Western sanctions against Russia have shown how the diplomatic path is not working. That is all the more reason for European leaders to accept the changing geostrategic realities. They are in for the long haul with Russia, which means that their own security and commitment to Eastern Europe has to readjust to the new circumstances—and soon.
Comments(9)
Again, Russia is playing aggressive Chess while everyone else is playing defensive Checkers....
It might be time to cut the losses in Ukraine and to move on. I agree with the article, that we will have to accept the fact that there will be no partnership with Russia in the short term, potentially not even in the mid term. Under these circumstances, any hope to find support in Moscow for any of the current crises in Syria or elsewhere will remain futile. Therefore, it might be the best policy to accept the de facto division of Ukraine, help the western part to survice economicly as well as politically by speeding up their western integration. Regarding Russia, on the other hand, ignorance might be the best choince: continue with sanctions, keeping a standing offer to ressume talks as soon as cooperations seems to be possible again and in the meantime doing what we can do best, business worldwide without Russia.
Maybe if Europe, Britain and the USA had responded appropriately to Putins breach of the Budapest memorandum things would be different today for Ukraine. Putin is a psychopathic bully and you just keep letting him do what he does best invade sovereign countries shame on you Olaf . Soon enough he will be at your doorstep ....lets see how you cut your loses then. Ukrainians paid a big price in the second WW they were victims of horrible regimes in their own lands and at the hands of Hitler ...they deserve better then this callous statement from you.
There is Eastern Ukrainian citizens who wish to live in a united Ukraine tied to the West. What do we do for them ? I highly doubt that Moscow would allow them to leave for it would bolster the anti-russian stance in Western Ukraine. Ignoring something will never be the way to solve problems, quite the contrary. Europe has to show some strength and be ready to actively oppose Russia whenever it is possible, even if only tangentially.
What are you talking about "the western part". Have a look at a map. Apart from Crimea, it is only a teeny tiny bit of Ukraine that is currently being occupied by the Russians and their proxies. Let me assure you that most Ukrainians would be quite happy to "cut their losses and move on", but there is every indications (and the Russians have been repeating it) that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will continue. In that case, what you call "the the western" part of Ukraine (actually 95 % of mainland Ukraine) will be obliged to defend itself. If it does not, then there will be zero % that is not occupied by Russia.
Agree.
A question i still ask to myself is... what don't we trust Putin ? He says that there is no Russians in Eastern ukraine ? Fine. Then if Ukraine officially asks for help, the Western Nations can come and shoot at them witout risking to go to war with Russia. I think that the West should remember that you can't stop someone which is determined to beat you without hurting him too, and since economic sanctions seems uselessn it may be time to play Putin's game against himself. It may be dangerous, but doing next to nothing is at least equally dangerous.
My earlier comment shouldn´t be misinterpreted. When I spoke about cutting losses, it means not legalizing occupation or separatism. Instead, I would argue for a realistic policy, focusing on the aid to Ukraine. Let´s be realistic, as long the west is not willing to go to war for Ukraine, there will be no chance to push back the Russians, neither out of the Donbass nor the Crimea. So the second best chance is to stay calm, keep the western cohesion in opposing the Russian position in legal and political terms, but at the same time find a way to establish facts for a further integration of the Ukraine into the West. Ignoring Russia here is something different than ignoring the problem. We should fulfill Putin’s nightmares by helping the Ukraine to become a prosperous, free and democratic sovereign Nation. This would be the best political answer for the military threat Putin tries to establish here. Much better than allowing Eastern Ukraine separatists to become Moscow’s knife at the throat of any democratic Government in Kiev. The division of Germany might serve as historic parallel: never fully accepted but only overcome by patience, successful nationbuilding in the West, and a long term offer for dialogue that only paid off early (to avoid war) and shortly before the end of the GDR (by avoiding military intervention in the peaceful revolution in East Germany).
United Nations must review the Security Council veto rules. An exclusion of international law breaker Russia must quickly come onto the table. In that way the odd block bashing could also have an end at least temporarily. Who takes the reins about Russian UN dictatorship?
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