When he entered office, French President François Hollande inherited a contract with Russia worth €1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) for the sale of two Mistral-class amphibious assault ships. In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new expansionist policies, the sale has become highly controversial.
Paris has been wavering between honoring the contract and postponing the delivery until Moscow respects an increasingly elusive ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are fighting pro-Russian rebels. France should reject both of these options. Instead, it should clearly and definitively cancel the sale, for a number of strategic reasons.
Three similar ships are currently in service in the French navy under the names Mistral, Tonnerre, and Dixmude (pictured). They were conceived as multipurpose expeditionary corps vessels capable of handling various types of operations: launching helicopters, landing troops and equipment, commanding and supporting these assets, and evacuating civilians from conflict zones.
Marc Pierini
More from this author...Each ship can carry and launch sixteen attack or transport helicopters and four landing craft, including hovercrafts. On board each vessel is a 2,650 square meter (246 square foot) garage for various types of vehicles, including armored ones, and a hospital with 70–120 beds. And each ship has a command-and-control center with 150 workstations and can host several hundred troops.
The United States has objected to the deal to sell the ships to Russia from the outset. Now the plan has become much more problematic in the wake of Russia’s aggressive moves in the past few months: its annexation of Crimea, its engagement of troops and weapons in eastern Ukraine, its repeated military flights near or over European airspace, and its assertive narrative against the West.
Western countries worry that if delivered and based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol (as many experts assume they would be), the two vessels would give the Russian army a major force projection vector. They would enable the Russian military to land or airlift troops and armored vehicles anywhere around the Black Sea while providing soldiers with close air cover.
The list of potential theaters of operation for the Russian ships is long: the Ukrainian coast on the Sea of Azov, the Ukrainian port of Odessa, the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, Georgia, Bulgaria, or Romania. Farther afield, the ships could be used in the Eastern Mediterranean, where Russia supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, or off the coast of the Western Balkans.
@fhollande, the EU, and NATO should think twice about the #Mistral ships.Tweet This
In other words, the two Mistral-class ships would not be just another piece of military gear for the Russian Armed Forces. Rather, they would constitute a pair of state-of-the-art, battle-proven vessels in the service of a patent policy of harassment and intrusion in Russia’s neighborhood. This is why not only Hollande but also the European Council and NATO should think twice about the deal. Given the prevalent mood in Moscow, the sale of the Mistral ships has become a major strategic issue.
Putin’s short statement after his encounter with Hollande on December 6 seemed to suggest France’s inescapable way out of its dilemma. Putin essentially said that Russia had paid for the ships and expected to receive them, but that if the sale were canceled, Moscow would want to be refunded.
The deal has domestic implications for Hollande to worry about. If the sale is abandoned, the government will lose a massive amount of income. Worse, the extreme-right National Front—which is openly sympathetic to Russian foreign policy and funded by a Russian bank loan—may use the cancellation as a political device against the ruling Socialists.
So perhaps, instead of more pressure from his U.S. and EU colleagues, Hollande needs solidarity and creative ideas for how to reallocate two ready-to-use pieces of military hardware. Despite the legal and technical intricacies of canceling the contract (Russian electronics are already installed on board the first ship), the many security threats in and around Europe provide ample justification for France and its allies to use the ships themselves. These threats affect the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean coast and include movements of refugees and migrants and an increase in Islamic State–affiliated terrorist activity in the Sinai, Libya, and Algeria.
Delivering the #Mistral ships would add to the risks of Russian aggression.Tweet This
The key strategic factor is the message the Western community will send to Russia. Conspiracy theories may be useful in Russia, and the Russian public, under the pressure of a massive propaganda apparatus, may believe them. From a Western standpoint, however, such theories merely hide a neo-expansionist policy aimed at re-creating the marches of the Soviet empire. Talks, warnings, and sanctions have not dented Putin’s determination and assertiveness. The risks of more Russian aggression are huge, and delivering the Mistral ships would add to them.
If decided on in a Euro-Atlantic context, the cancellation of the sale of the two Mistral-class ships will give a strong signal that Russia’s actions have gone far enough and will constitute a tangible, effective redline. Conversely, the ships’ delivery would inevitably be read by Moscow as another sign of Western weakness and would offer a premium to Russia’s bullying tactics. That is a far bigger issue than the technicalities of canceling a contract.
Comments(13)
Of course ,one does not sell helicopter carriers to a country that is invading its neighbours,carrying out incursions in the airspace of NATO members, and engaging in anti-Western diatribes. Putin, has violated Russia's obligations under the Budapest Memorandum.He has not respected any of the ceasefires he or his allies agreed to in Ukraine. That is a sufficient reason to cancel the contract As for the FN ,it might be time for the mainstream parties in France to stop pandering to the populist sentiments it stokes,They might point out that Le Pen's professions of faith in French sovereignty ring hollow when she takes money from a foreign dictator.
Well if you hadn't noticed the West doesn't actually enjoy good relations with a host of other countries, and a contract is a contract, do you know the reason that Typhoons and F-15's lost in the race for INDIAN MMRCA deal worth $20 billion, cause India doesn't consider them to be genuine partners, France was the only country that didn't fall in that category, that's why India decided to buy Rafale. Cancel this deal and geo political implications are huge for France, first it will cost them significantly and erode their reputation as credible partners, and for your information NATO stands nowhere when it comes to arms sales, its countries like INDIA, CHINA that decide the sales defense market now, and especially India now, and in case you forget Russia is the major arms importer to India, it still enjoys a considerable leverage, India could have as easily gone for MIG 29's or the SU-35. There is no easy way for France here, and frankly sanctions will not get the WEST crimea, if it thinks that, and UKRAINE without trade with Russia is just another sudan waiting to happen.
OK. Refund the cost plus penalties, and Russia must then shift to China as its "go-to" partner for next-generation military ships.
It should also give the Indian partners food for thought, that if France can renege on its contracts with Russia, so it can with India, so lets cancel the $20 billion deal for the RAFALE fighter jets and give it to the Russians,who have provided us with SU-30 MKI's the most capable 4th gen fighter and flanker
The ships are built to Russian specifications and would require costly upgrades to be usable by any NATO country. Moreover, the French and the rest of the European countries have little reason to keep the vessel. The penalties for canceling the contract would work in Russia's favor, as they are several billion dollars greater than the original contract and the ships are not needed for a proxy war in the Ukraine. Russia has nukes, a large submarine fleet, a powerful army and a modern air force. Two ships will not significantly expand their capabilities. Just finish the vessels and stop showboating
So France should just follow US foreign policy? France will no longer be trusted by any Government for key military or other advanced equipment. France should deliver the ships.
This is great! Any suggestions who should pay for it?
And the US will pay France's penalties, right, Mr Pelligrini? Imagine Russia saying US has too much control in the Gulf of Mexico.. Expansionist policies, annexation.. the peaceful. International Law-abiding US doesn't like any of this..
Given the need, and the desire of the Indian Navy wanting to procure 4 of these types of Helicopter ships. And the recent history of the lack of this type of equipment for disaster relief for Indian Ocean natural and man made disasters (tsunami ' s and MH-370), That region could really use equipment like this, and would give France the opportunity to close the Rafael deal. India has a history of purchasing Russian ships so the retrofitting would be do - able and more than likely they (Russia) would sell the equipment to India to finish equipping the ships. I would think even the US would welcome this kind of check and balance in the region as China exerts more pressure in.the region. As much as these are weapons of war.....they may actually be able to do some good in that region. It's a shame after all these years the UN does not have a disaster relief fleet of it's own......
While I agree that the sell of the Mistral is problematic, I have a better question : when France is the sole country in continental EU to actually go to war to defend the "shared values" of the Union, a fact which cost millions of euro a week, can it really afford to lose such a market ? Worse, can it afford to lose its credibility as a seller ? I'm French and the Mistral are just another problematic legacy of Sarkozy era, but with the continuous attacks (and not simply amicable warnings, nor advice) from Germany, France can ill afford to appear surrendering even more to foreign powers. If it does, then the FN will grow at an even stronger pace than it already does. Last week, I think, we had an emission on France 2 where a CDU deputy was present. I can tell you that, while I am firmly a Left supporter (and for me the PS as a whole is at best a Centre-Left party), what she said made me outraged and I could understand why the FN was growing so strong. Every time a CDU member open his or her mouth to talk about France, I have the feeling that they have some hidden agenda to bolster the Front National, maybe as a mean to weaken even more the governmental parties in France. The Mistral affair is only one more exemple of this problem : the rest of the world, and especially the EU, doesn't seem able to understand how French people react, not what are our feelings and the ways to make use angry and resentful. Basically, either someone buy those ships for the same price that the Russians, or highrer, or they have to be sold. France can't afford to not sell them, neither in the short nor the long term.
In an October 21 piece in Foreign Policy online, retired Admiral James Stavridis and Leo Michel from National Defense University advocate an EU solution to the French dilemma. Worth considering their suggestion.
who wants to buy two ships worth 1.2 billion, for 4 billion? ships cost penalties plus both the stern sections were fabricated in St petersburg russia. so they must be returned or be compenstaed for... that will be huge. As the russians could say they want them back. logistics must be horrendous for that. the deal was NATO approved already, so I say once the MH17 report comes out the deal will go ahead. or not.
Oh what a moron
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