Was the recent decision by Ukraine not to sign a major association agreement with the European Union a failure of EU foreign policy? Despite some understandable hand-wringing in Brussels, the answer must be a resounding “no.” While it is true that this week’s Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius will now be unable to “deliver” Ukraine as the crown jewel of the European Neighborhood Policy, Europeans have gained much in the diplomatic wrangling of the last six months.
First of all, the fog has now lifted. There are no illusions left about the nature of the game in which the EU finds itself in its Eastern neighborhood. By bringing its own rather limited zero-sum logic to the issue, Russia successfully managed to upgrade the Eastern Partnership from a technocratic cooperation project into a geopolitical contest.
As recently as a few days ago, EU officials refused to look at the game over Ukraine that way. They insisted that Ukraine’s signing of an agreement with the EU would not constitute a defeat for the Kremlin, but that all parties would benefit in the long run. The officials are right, of course, and yet the game is being played differently for the time being. The EU had no choice but to finally understand that. It was forced to play hardball. And so it got its act together and did just that.
And that is the second reason why the outcome of the standoff is not an EU defeat. For the first time since the Eastern Partnership’s inception in 2009, the EU did not duck the challenge, but decided to accept it. It stood firm. It defended Ukraine’s right to make its own sovereign decision in the face of blatant Russian political blackmail of the leadership in Kiev. The EU lost the standoff when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych caved in to Russian pressure, but it gained something more important: the EU did not compromise, but held its nerve.
The key to the EU’s steadfastness was Germany’s unexpectedly firm commitment to the cause. Getting Berlin on board for a principled position on the Eastern Partnership turned the initiative from a toothless pet project of Eastern and Northern EU member states into a pan-EU endeavor. When Germany attached itself to this cause, the project all of a sudden gained political and diplomatic weight.
In the end, German support was not enough to create the desired outcome. But again, the EU gained something even more important: Germany took the foreign policy lead on a very uncomfortable issue, one that involved standing up to Russia. Just last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke firmly in the Bundestag and put her weight behind the logic of the EU’s policy in the East. Observers took note of that across Europe—and certainly also in Russia.
It has been said that the EU made two fatal mistakes that brought about the failure of the association agreement with Ukraine. First, it should not have reinforced the Russian zero-sum logic by stating that Ukraine had to choose between the EU agreement and the Moscow-led customs union. By forcing Kiev to make a hard choice, the EU was undermining its own efforts. Second, the EU should not have tied the signing of the agreement to the release of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Yanukovych’s imprisoned archenemy.
There is a little bit of truth in both arguments, especially the latter. But ultimately, these EU positions were only minor factors in Kiev’s decision to abandon the deal.
The real reasons for Ukraine’s stance are more deeply rooted in the country’s domestic politics. The Ukrainian political elite, which for several years managed to steer a policy of equidistance between Russia and the West, decided that it was not yet time to abandon that model. For the oligarchs behind Yanukovych, getting too close to either Brussels or Moscow potentially endangers their business model, which is all about getting rich by keeping a monopoly of power in a fragile political environment.
Add to this the brutal political blackmail from Moscow, and you get a situation in which sticking to the status quo looked more attractive than risking a leap of faith into the arms of the EU.
Nothing is yet lost for the EU. It failed to secure the association agreement with Ukraine, but it emerges from the quagmire stronger than before. Not only has the episode been a healthy reality check, the EU also went through an enormous test of unity and came out intact.
Furthermore, Russia made it clear to the rest of the planet that the only way it can succeed in its neighborhood is not through the attractiveness of what it has to offer, but through blackmail and coercion. Not that this was entirely unknown before, but the utter crassness of the Ukraine case will make many governments in the region and elsewhere think twice about their dealings with Moscow.
And, perhaps most importantly, if the EU remains united and firm, time is on its side. Eventually, even Ukrainian oligarchs will realize that staying rich and living a better life is easier to achieve when allied with the West than with Russia.
All now depends on two things. First, the EU must keep the door open and not give up on Ukraine. The initial reactions from Brussels and elsewhere are encouraging in that respect. Second, the EU needs to eagerly do its homework and keep its integration and market model economically and politically attractive. If it can pull this off, it is quite clear who will prevail in the geopolitical contest over Eastern Europe in the long run.
And maybe, just maybe, it will also become clear to Russian decisionmakers that such an outcome is best for them, too. The foreign policy game over Eastern Europe has not been lost. It has only just begun.


Comments(10)
Many thanks- great article! Another issue, I would add, is the presidential elections in 2015 that the current incumbent is so desperate to win. The rampant ascendancy of 'the Family' over Ukrainian politics and business has certainly caused frictions even within the Party of Regions itself. This 'political machine' is now less homogenous and is much more prone to swing. Many 'titans' are calculating their bets not just against Russia or the EU, but the 'Family' too. The crucial question is: who is really in charge of the Party of Regions?
Jan, interesting points. 'Keeping the door open' is essentially a membership perspective for Ukraine. It is what Kyiv has sought for so long and its political value in place would be a nice in-kind substitute of the short-term EU funding president Yanukovych wants.
Well said. Putin is a son of the Soviets, schooled by the KGB. He will never change and has made the same mistakes that resulted in the breakup of the USSR. Ukraine will not join in his "new USSR". The EU needs to keep "the door open" until at least 2016 (when a new president will be in power) to show all Ukrainians the benefits of signing the agreement. This will include giving trade benefits now, financial support and visa free access. Keep the high moral ground, Putin has confirmed his inability to obtain and retain true friends.
Actually if you consider the antics of the EU, they are the heirs of Bolshevism and post-modernist thought. But realizing this would require being honest and taking the time to learn about the political philosophy of the EU and the lineage of that philosophy.
Keep trying to cheer yourselves up. You lost, but somehow that was actually a victory. Maybe Putin would not have been so successful at convincing Ukraine that EU association would have been bad for its economy had it not been such an obvious fact that it would have been bad for Ukraine's economy - the EU sells more to Ukraine every year than it buys from Ukraine, and there were no plans discussed that would have reversed that imbalance. Ukraine would have borrowed massive amounts of money from the IMF, and then given it all back to the EU in the form of a trade deficit, plus been expected to repay the loan as well!! Nice work if you can get it. By way of contrast, Russia buys more from Ukraine than it sells to Ukraine, resulting in a small trade surplus. But it is simply in the nature of western politicians - especially European ones - when they have lost out on something they wanted (often just to spite someone else, as was the case here) to pretend they never wanted it in the first place. Ha, ha; the enemy fell right into your clever trap, you sly foxes!! Whose round is it?
Восточную политику Европейского Союза должны начинать во Владивостоке! http://politicalobserver.pl/?p=16823
Great article.
"The crown jewel of the European Neighborhood"... "The foreign policy game"...? Mr. Techau, do you realise that the main EU member states have a colonial history and that they should avoid exactly the kind of language you use? Words matter, even if many do not realise this in Brussels. "Eventually, even Ukrainian oligarchs will realize that staying rich and living a better life is easier to achieve when allied with the West than with Russia." ..Yes, this is a major concern for all of us and a very forceful point! Surreal and totally misconceived analysis, the EU needs new policies and new think tankers.
Nice article. But you are a bit mistaken about the oligarhs and their role in the current Ukraine. Yanukovich is looking up to the Putin's Russia model and wants to establish something like that in Ukraine. Back before the presidential elections of 2010 he had a huge oligarhic support. Since then the relations have seriously deteriorated with most of them. Most of the corruption "projects" involve people from the Yanukovich family circle, some of them are actually crossing paths of the oligarhs from Ukraine AND Russia, which actually contributed immensely to the deterioration of the relations between Putin and Yanukovich (if you remember the former was a big supporter of the later back in 2004). If you need an example there was a huge confict over the "Livela" company, which through a legal hole was allowed to import goods in Ukraine without paying VAT tax, and possibly other taxes. The companies focus was oil products, and it quickly started to dominate the market since others just couldn't compete. Some of the oil refinery plants controlled by the russian oligarhical groups had to stop production. I'm not sure if the situation got resolved.
Russia saved Ukraine, a country that has NOT been able to carry the weight of its independence. For 15 years, Ukraine lived off cheap Russian gas and millions of Ukrainian migrants working in Russia (over 3.7 in 2013 according to Ukrainian minister). EU-NATO states are using scare tactics and threatening the democratically elected and still popular Ukrainian leadership with sanctions, demanding that they sign the agreement that offers very little to Ukraine, and urge on the crowds that have turned the center of Kiev into a large dump while their country is rushing into default and economic collapse. Meanwhile, the EU-NATO bloc bureaucrats and politicians consistently ignore the millions of citizens from Ukraine's south and east, the economic center of the country. On many counts EU-NATO officials are delusional and too ambitious.
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