The remarkable diplomacy around the Korean Peninsula in 2018 has created the possibility for transformation of the security order in East Asia. Several different stable outcomes may be possible, depending on how “denuclearization” is defined in Beijing, Seoul, Pyongyang, and Washington. Where are Chinese, South Korean, North Korean, and American interests aligned and where do they diverge in these plausible endgames? How much remaining latent or actual North Korean nuclear capability would the other states accept? And what do these end-states imply for the U.S.-South Korea alliance and stationing of U.S. troops on the peninsula?


Toby Dalton, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association

Chung Min Lee, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Kathleen Stephens, Korean Economic Institute of America

Zhang Yan, China Arms Control and Disarmament Association