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Both Moscow and Ankara are benefiting from Turkey’s mediating role since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strategically, however, Putin has the upper hand.
The multifaceted tensions simmering south of Europe pose major challenges to the EU. Although the bloc has already embarked on some important foreign policy initiatives, more concrete and sustained actions must be implemented.
In Turkey, green protests can go beyond environmental issues and include demands for more inclusive and transparent governance. But while climate activism can help keep the opposition alive, the country’s democratic future is still in question.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s negative stance toward Finland and Sweden joining NATO jeopardizes further enlargement of the alliance amid great geopolitical insecurity. Breaking this stalemate will require a compromise from all sides.
Driven by domestic considerations, Turkey has triggered a major crisis inside NATO by blocking the Finnish and Swedish membership bids. This move inevitably plays into the hands of the Kremlin.
Clashes between Turkey and the PKK have recently intensified. By ramping up confrontation with the Kurdish armed movement in Syria and Iraq, Turkish President Erdogan is likely to improve his chances of reelection in 2023.
The move to block Finland’s and Sweden’s bids threatens the relationship between Ankara and the West.
Recent elections in Europe may provide Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan with useful examples on how to undermine the integrity of the country’s democratic processes. These include the use of disinformation, media blackouts, and state resources to advantage the incumbent party.
Given Turkey’s fears of Russian aggression, as well as the opportunity the invasion provides for Ankara to reassert itself as a diplomatic heavyweight, Erdogan’s motives to play intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow are clear. However, the odds of success in these negotiations are mixed at best.
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