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Driven by domestic considerations, Turkey has triggered a major crisis inside NATO by blocking the Finnish and Swedish membership bids. This move inevitably plays into the hands of the Kremlin.
Clashes between Turkey and the PKK have recently intensified. By ramping up confrontation with the Kurdish armed movement in Syria and Iraq, Turkish President Erdogan is likely to improve his chances of reelection in 2023.
Recent elections in Europe may provide Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan with useful examples on how to undermine the integrity of the country’s democratic processes. These include the use of disinformation, media blackouts, and state resources to advantage the incumbent party.
Given Turkey’s fears of Russian aggression, as well as the opportunity the invasion provides for Ankara to reassert itself as a diplomatic heavyweight, Erdogan’s motives to play intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow are clear. However, the odds of success in these negotiations are mixed at best.
Since coming to power in 2002, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has overseen a radical transformation of the country. The panelists will analyze the political trajectory of Erdoğan’s regime, discuss the current state of affairs, and look ahead to Turkey’s 2023 presidential election.
Turkish President Erdogan has long played Russia and Ukraine against each other, squeezing out the best deal for himself. However, as the fighting intensifies and the West ratchets up the pressure on Vladimir Putin, Ankara is under pressure to finally pick a side.
While Ankara’s activist policy in Southeast Europe has prompted many to see the country as a revisionist power, this is not the case. Turkey is not an external player but very much part of the Balkans, and its foreign policy is a parallel strategy to those of the EU and NATO, rather than a challenge.
With accession talks at an impasse, Turkey and the EU need another way to revitalize their relationship.
Ankara’s drone sales to Kiev have angered Moscow. A military escalation in and around Ukraine would endanger Turkey’s relationship with Russia, impair its participation in NATO operations, or both.
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