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With four weeks to go, the UK is experiencing not only its most important election in living memory, but its most unpredictable—and one in which a minority of voters could impose Brexit on the majority.
If Hong Kong was promised “one country, two systems,” the Good Friday Agreement promised “two countries, one market” for the island of Ireland. After two decades, both settlements are fraying badly.
British leader Boris Johnson’s plans were thrown into disarray when the UK’s Supreme Court ruled that his recent suspension of Parliament was unlawful. What does this mean for Brexit?
The damage Brexit is inflicting on Northern Ireland and the Republic will become Europe’s newest neighborhood crisis.
Brexit could wreck Britain’s centuries-old character of alternating rule by large, ideologically capacious parties. If so, the irony is that British politics will end up resembling politics in much of the rest of Europe.
Brexit opens up many geopolitical questions. Not in the least, the UK, the EU, and the United States will have to decide how to work together or independently.
Boris Johnson could end up being the English leader who allowed the breakup of the UK to achieve Brexit. There are lessons in the dissolution of two other unions, the USSR and Czechoslovakia, and the role played by Boris Yeltsin and Václav Klaus.
To deal with Iran and the Middle East, Britain needs EU support as much as the EU needs a serious defense and security policy. Neither will materialize when the summer pause ends.*
Calling an election once Brexit has happened would offer a huge advantage for Boris Johnson. Taking on a possibly revived Labour party would be more fruitful than going up against Nigel Farage.
Boris Johnson, who is all but certain to become the next UK prime minister, has promised to deliver Brexit by October 31. But breaking his word has been a theme of his career.
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