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Turkey’s incursion into Syria has adverse consequences for Europe’s security. But the problem is much bigger than just Turkey. It is high time the EU reemerged on the Middle East scene and acted strategically.
The United States and Europe are erroneously banking on sanctioning Turkey to contain the fallout in Syria. Instead of sanctions, the West needs to devise a mutually agreed plan of action with Ankara.
When the EU’s new top brass take over in Brussels, they will inherit four overarching problem areas. Each will need to be carefully managed.
In light of big geopolitical changes, the EU has focused on improving its microlevel democracy support. But it most urgently needs a rethink at the macrolevel of its democracy strategy.
After almost seventeen years in power, Turkey’s president wields absolute power. It’s doubtful he would relinquish it without a fight.
To deal with Iran and the Middle East, Britain needs EU support as much as the EU needs a serious defense and security policy. Neither will materialize when the summer pause ends.*
By leading a new diplomatic effort to end the conflict and begin reconstruction, Trump could both extricate the U.S. from the conflict and help stabilize the region.
The EU’s twin policy of peacemaking and state building in the Middle East is unachievable. Now, the union must choose between preventing the status quo from deteriorating and embracing a one-state reality.
The dangerous standoff between Iran and the United States has exposed Europe’s political and strategic weakness and its inability to exert any influence in the region.
The current escalation between the United States and Iran bears similarities to the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion. Yet while the danger of military confrontation is real, there are also important differences.