Carnegie Europe
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Russia’s steady development of military capabilities on the ground, in the air, and at sea has enhanced its overall military posture in the region. This experience, and lack of resistance from NATO, is likely to enhance Russia’s military posture and ambitions outside the Mediterranean.
Russia’s activities in the Mediterranean have created new challenges for Europe’s energy interests and NATO’s defense architecture. Today’s transatlantic efforts should focus on NATO’s policy in the region, the Russia-Turkey relationship, and multilateral conflict resolution in Libya and Syria.
EU-UK cooperation on foreign policy will be hampered by the emotional and political fallout from a difficult divorce and boosted by a renewed transatlantic relationship. In the longer term, external challenges and the internal policy trends will determine the scope for working together.
Turkey’s eroding democracy and assertive foreign policy loom large on the international stage. In 2021, the EU and the United States must protect their interests by containing Turkey’s disruptive behavior while maintaining economic and security ties.
The EU is a global actor, particularly in the areas of trade, sanctions, and assistance, but its neighboring regions remain the main focus of its external policy.
No matter who wins in November, turning back the clock to 2016 will not be possible. European trust in U.S. leadership has been irreparably damaged.
Trump and Brexit are challenging Europe’s defense cooperation. The incoming European Commission will need to devote time and effort to make up for any shortfall.
The European Commission has become more involved in EU defense policy. To see changes implemented, however, it must prove it can help the EU develop into a more capable defense actor.
If NATO is to remain effective, the security needs of its Southern neighborhood must be countered by a more sustainable and ambitious strategy.
Europe may need to start planning for defense of the continent without the United States, but first it should do its utmost to prevent Trump from turning his back on NATO.