Carnegie Europe
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British and Turkish policymakers face a very similar conundrum: they both need to reconstruct a relationship with the EU under the newly changed assumptions about their future status.
Despite traveling on different paths, Britain’s and Turkey’s relationships with the EU may end up the same in terms of their levels of economic integration.
The debate on the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU matters to Turkey—and will matter even more so if in the wake of a possible Brexit.
If the UK leaves the EU, that might also be a game changer for Ankara. But a partnership short of membership could fail to drive further political reforms in Turkey.
Europe’s global ambitions would suffer a huge setback if Britain would choose to leave the EU in 2017 and if Turkey would, at the same time, give up on membership.
The EU should expect tenser relations with Turkey should Cyprus assume the bloc's presidency before a deal reunifying the divided island is reached.
The ruling Justice and Development party's electoral success in Turkey means that Ankara is likely to continue its current policy of hesitant engagement with Brussels.
Ankara’s aim is to assert its position in NATO and shape the transatlantic alliance so that it becomes an organisation that more closely mirrors its own objectives.
Although France's opposition to Turkish accession creates tension in the two countries' relations, events in the Southern Mediterranean offer a unique opportunity for strategic cooperation between the EU and Turkey.
The West must find ways to accommodate Ankara’s growing global ambitions even as it urges Turkey to take a more constructive and visible role in the challenges of global governance.