Carnegie Europe
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The coming months may well see more bitterness and friction in UK-EU relations. These tensions threaten to unravel the fragile 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which has largely kept violence at bay in Northern Ireland.
Brexit Britain is discovering that its influence and ability to tackle global challenges have diminished. As reality sinks in, it could change the way Britain thinks and acts—very possibly for the better.
The loud boasts of defiance by the British government toward the EU have given way to the quieter language of negotiation. The outcome will determine just how much post-Brexit sovereignty London will have.
Level playing field or no access to the EU’s single market? With Brexit talks in the final stages, one solution for a UK-EU trade deal seems within reach—but only if it allows for both sides to claim victory.
The UK’s economic relationship with the EU will change profoundly. Instead of open trade, Britain is heading for a hard Brexit that will have dire consequences for its economy and role as a trading nation.
If Hong Kong was promised “one country, two systems,” the Good Friday Agreement promised “two countries, one market” for the island of Ireland. After two decades, both settlements are fraying badly.
A small unionist party in Northern Ireland is haunting the Brexit talks and the British prime minister.
Could a more coordinated Turkey-UK relationship help the two governments improve their negotiating positions with the EU?
If the UK leaves the European Union without having reached any agreement after two years, it will be a disaster for both sides.
British and Turkish policymakers face a very similar conundrum: they both need to reconstruct a relationship with the EU under the newly changed assumptions about their future status.