Carnegie Europe
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For the European Union to become a global player without Britain, there must be a major shift of alliances and direction inside the bloc.
Boris Johnson’s sweeping election victory brings clarity for Britain but not for Europe as it enters a decade of major geostrategic shifts.
The EU’s most important leaders are hobbled by domestic crises, leaving the bloc almost rudderless to deal with major foreign and security policy issues.
A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.
Germany and the UK are likely to remain dependent on U.S. defense, because the alternatives are currently too daunting for Berlin and London.
A European Union without Britain demands a new kind of balancing act from Germany.
The German chancellor is the only leader who still has the authority to shape the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and rescue the European project from the Euroskeptics.
German politicians including Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble are using thinly veiled threats to try to keep Britain in the EU. That approach is unlikely to work.
A British exit from the EU would confirm Germany’s dominance in the bloc. But it is that dominant position that Berlin does not want and cannot exercise.
European defense cooperation is being spurred more by the convergence of national priorities than by the efforts of institutions like the EU and NATO.