Carnegie Europe
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The disruption caused by Britain failing to agree an orderly exit from the European Union is immense—and dangerous for the bloc’s future stability.
Few want the UK to crash out of the EU without a deal. After a tumultuous week for Theresa May, the chances have risen that Brexit won’t happen at all.
The United Kingdom looks certain to remain in the EU at least into the summer of 2019—and, very possibly, indefinitely.
The chances of a new Brexit referendum sometime in 2019 are growing—as is the possibility that the UK will not, in the end, leave the EU at all.
If the talks for the UK’s exit from the European Union fall apart, it could precipitate a major crisis for Britain’s government and Parliament.
Closing this round of Brexit talks requires concessions from either the UK or the EU that neither side can politically afford without first demonstrating that no other solution is possible.
Whatever happens in the next few weeks, implementing Brexit could make the UK a rule-taker, not a rule-maker, perhaps indefinitely.
The EU’s most important leaders are hobbled by domestic crises, leaving the bloc almost rudderless to deal with major foreign and security policy issues.
A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.
The endgame in the Brexit negotiations has come down to a battle of nerve for the UK and the EU. Unless one side gives way, the chances of talks ending without a deal look high and rising.