What an extraordinary summer.
The UK impounded an Iranian tanker allegedly destined for Syria. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump was thrilled: it thought it had London on its side to take on Iran. Prime Minister Boris Johnson did indeed agree to support the United States in protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. But Britain still supports the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal that world powers agreed with Iran in 2015. And a court in Gibraltar on August 15 released the tanker, later rejecting a U.S. legal request to seize it again. The so-called special Anglo-American relationship is not plain sailing.
The Iran nuclear deal is not quite in shatters, but Europe is powerless to make it stick unless Washington and Tehran return to diplomacy instead of dangerous saber-rattling. So far, Europe’s own diplomatic efforts have had little effect—it lacks political and economic weight. And it lacks a strategy about how to keep the Strait of Hormuz safe for global commercial traffic.
Europe’s reaction to the huge, unprecedented demonstrations in Hong Kong is another case of helplessness.
The demonstrations, which may have numbered 1.7 million over the weekend of August 17–18, are not just about demanding that the China-backed Hong Kong leadership scrap plans to extradite individuals to China to stand before Chinese courts. They are also about the explosion in the cost of property and the lack of affordable housing. Above all, they are about the people of Hong Kong determined to defend their democratic freedoms. They do not want to live under a communist system.
No one knows how Beijing will end these protests. What is surprising is that prominent Hong Kong business leaders and academics have not attempted to mediate between the protesters and Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive. She was appointed by Beijing in 2017 but has been incapable of dealing with the protesters’ demands. The stakes are immense for all sides—yet the Europeans are passive onlookers to these incredible protests as if they don’t recall what happened across Eastern and Central Europe thirty years ago.
Take also what’s happening in Kashmir where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped Article 370, which gave near-autonomous status to the Muslim-majority Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. His decision is highly controversial to say the least. With two nuclear powers, Pakistan and India, confronting each other over the disputed territory, this part of South Asia could become more unstable, and dangerously so. Don’t hold your breath about an EU mediating role, or for that matter a U.S. one.
And just to add to the woes that dominated the summer, Trump took another swipe at Germany (and included Japan and South Korea). He wants these governments to shoulder the costs for American troops and personnel based in their countries. If not—whether that is a threat or not—Trump would reduce, pull out, or relocate those troops.
One of Trump’s ideas is to use Poland as a base instead of Germany. Dream on! Germany is a logistical hub for around 35,000 American troops. The Ramstein Airbase is used for the U.S. Air Forces in Europe & Air Forces Africa, apart from the other crucial infrastructures needed for U.S. operations. Poland is no substitute for this hub, which was built up over decades.
Despite that, Trump’s criticisms of Germany are well-known, from its car exports, its big trade surplus, and its shambolic armed forces, to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s consistent and staunch defense of the post-1945 multilateral institutions. Merkel does not hide her contempt for Trump and vice versa.
As for French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country has a special intelligence and military relationship with the Pentagon, he will have his hands full when he hosts the G7 summit in France on the weekend of August 24–26. The summit will take place just after Johnson makes a long-overdue visit to Paris and Berlin to tell Macron and Merkel that he is taking Britain out of the EU by the end of October, deal or no deal. What a way to seek common ground.
This catalog of woes demonstrates two depressing trends.
One is the absence of American leadership. Even if its diplomats are working non-stop behind the scenes, they are certainly not getting the kind of support they need from their president. Trump has been singularly disruptive in his trade dispute with China, which has global implications for growth and stability. He has been disruptive in his dealings with Iran, almost indifferent toward Hong Kong, and what about the Kashmir crisis?
And just to add to the woes, the looming political and financial crisis in Argentina, the back-peddling against corruption in Brazil, and the miserable situation in Venezuela are all issues that seriously affect the United States and Europe.
The second trend is that European leadership has been so absent in these crises at a time when American leadership has been chaotic and transactional. Europe has been napping for far too long because it depended on and expected the United States to take the lead. That is an excuse that is becoming redundant.
Closer to home, Brexit has become a time-consuming distraction, while Merkel is biding her time as chancellor of Europe’s biggest economy. Her coalition government is almost paralyzed: it cannot even agree on climate change goals or something as basic as putting a speed limit on superhighways. Italy’s messy, populist politics and the continuing disagreements over how to deal with refugees betray a Europe unable even to deal with its own domestic problems.
For now, Macron is the only leader who is taking the initiative on reforming the EU, on trying to end Russia’s blatant interference in eastern Ukraine, and on making Europe act strategically. He cannot do it alone. And the upshot of weak European leadership and chaotic American leadership can be both dangerous and exploited by China, Russia, and other countries.
The West is not in good shape.
Comments(3)
Iran is a revolutionary Islamic state, the most disruptive force in the Middle East today. Europe treats the JCPOA as if it represents some kind of progress. Nothing could be further from the truth. A US return to this deeply flawed agreement will become the death knell of the NPT. In fact, now, the very promise of the NPT is at risk. The Middle East is poised to become a nuclear weapons region precisely because of the very nature of the JCPOA. It is Obama, Biden and Kerry who failed to lead with respect to Iran. It was France that wanted a much tougher deal. And it was France that wanted some sort of US leadership on Syrian democracy in the initial stages of its civil war. Again, Obama and company failed terribly in Syria and the ensuing refugee crisis completely discombobulated politics in Europe. Iran and eventually Russia have played a significant role in propping up Assad, as the West has stood silent in the face of a death toll now approaching (one million?). So Western failure is nothing new. The Bush administration strongly advocated democracy in the Middle East when weapons of mass destruction could not be found in Iraq. But in no way was the Bush policy on Iraq a complete failure. In fact, the 2010 election held great promise for the future of Iraqi democracy. However, Obama allowed Iran to eventually hijack the post-election coalition process in order to smooth the way toward the eventual JCPOA. Another dismal Obama failure. The truth of the matter was that the prospective election of moderate Iraqi leader, Ayad Alawi, became a strong regional incentive toward the Arab Spring and events which then unfolded in Egypt and Syria. Obama was paralyzed by theses events. In fact, the US showed no leadership on Arab appeals for democracy after 2009. Meanwhile, Western economic policy in the aftermath of the global crisis of 2008 has relied solely on central bank monetary policy. Growth has been shallow and been dominated by finance and speculation. While asset prices have soared, real income has lagged, leading to class resentment, the politics of nationalism and the rejection of the post-war global economic order. Then, there was the US-NATO debacle in the Ukraine leading to the demise of the INF and a burgeoning Russia-China entente. So much for the pivot to Asia. Don't get me wrong, Trump has few answers to any of these myriad problems. This is especially true on climate. It is not just the West in terrible shape. Mother Earth stands at the precipice!
A very interesting article. Your closing line must refer specifically to the "European" west. America is thriving with the lowest unemployment in 50 years (minority unemployment lowest ever), rising wages, energy surplus, and the world's strongest military which protects Europe (The U.S. provides, but doesn't need, NATO protection). I forgot how Europeans live under tons of freedom-crushing regulations created by those brilliant un-elected bureaucrats, and don't even have free-speech. Socialist tendencies have given Europe negative interest rates, dependency on the very fair-minded Russia for energy, the lack of will or capability to stand up to evil (Russia, China, Iran, N. Korea), and loss of national identity. The Brussels EU crowd might feel more at home in Venezuela. Perhaps the West (meaning Europe) should consider returning to western values. You are cordially invited to Alaska if you would like to see how freedom-loving people live and think. It's been many years since I went to Brussels
The article captures a long list of formidable challenges faced by the 21st century humanity. This is the world made by the warring PIE Kurgan tribes arriving in Europe in the depth of time, on horseback, obliterating the native cultures. The brutal reality is that Europe has always been unable to confront major geopolitical and strategic shifts other than going to war; after every war, some kind of armistice was mistaken for peace, until MAD relatively and temporarily settled the world for some decades. Alexander the Great dislodged the original empire and made it to India, but it was the night watchman empire who achieved his dream to reach (and dominate) the "ends of the world and the Great Outer Sea". He’s still present, the recent Athens clashes over Macedonia name cultural appropriation. For the first time in eons the East is back, with economic and especially military numbers matching Europe and her world extensions, the Western civilization (some would add here a ?). It is inconceivable that Iron Sardar’s India will accept any kind of public Western J&K mediation; not to mention that Ladakh is also there, which means China. At its origin the dispute started with the arrival of the India East Company, since 2010 an Indian company. Any Honk Kong reference (justified actually) will be met by China with references to prorogation (not mentioned in the Magna Charta) and les gilets jaunes; “cost of property and lack of affordable housing” sounds like London and San Francisco. Macron giving advice to Brazil on the rain forest while le “Montagne d'Or” is still considered; his no Father Christmas attitude towards Guiana; Germany burning coal and so on, a long list where Europe could have led by example. The 35K troops and 15K civilian personnel in Germany, the author is correct in assessing the present situation, in spite of Grenell’s DPA and Twitter diplomatic activity. However, any millennial saddled with student debt, in general any US citizen thinking about medical bankruptcy and dwindling Social Security prospects would have difficulty understanding why always the US forces have to be present in Europe, Africa and Middle East in former EU members imperial possessions, defend Sykes Picot, Johnson, and Curzon lines. Unfortunately, new spaces have just opened for total war, the Arctic and the Cosmos, not to mention cyberspace. The expenses associated with waging war in these new realms will dwarf the tens of trillions sunk into MAD. The EU must shoulder some costs.
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