This blog is part of EU-LISTCO, an innovative and timely project that investigates the challenges facing Europe’s foreign policy. A consortium of fourteen leading research institutions and universities aims to identify risks connected to areas of limited statehood and contested orders—and the EU’s ability to respond.
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When Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko manipulated the results of his country’s presidential election on August 9, 2020, to maintain the only remaining one-man dictatorship in Europe, he triggered a popular uprising that is still ongoing.
Lukashenko’s security forces have tried to repress civil society, including through gross human rights violations—a typical reaction for an autocratic regime that has lost all legitimacy.
The result is an order contestation combined with a struggle over who controls the state. And of course, Russia is once again trying to meddle in the internal affairs of one of its neighbors.
This combination of popular uprising, violent repression, order contestation, and external interference has resulted in an explosive situation which could easily turn into a security threat to the EU.
So, what can the EU and its member states do to mitigate the risk of order contestation and prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Belarus?
Research on external efforts at protecting and promoting human rights and democracy as well as on the transformative power of Europe has shown time and again that, first, it is hard to foster regime change from the outside when there are no internal liberal forces that demand democratic change.
Second, however, external democracy promoters can empower domestic actors and civil society in their mobilization for democratic reforms, tilting the domestic balance of power in favor of the liberal reform coalitions.
In Belarus, we encounter such a democratic movement. However, direct support by the EU to prop up the social mobilization would almost certainly be counterproductive. It would give Lukashenko an excuse to step up repression against the alleged interference of hostile external powers.
Likewise, it might provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with a pretext to support Lukashenko with Russian security forces, even though Russia’s military doctrine only provides for military assistance in case of an armed attack against Belarus or actions involving the use of military force.
The liberal opposition in Belarus has carefully avoided pro-EU or anti-Russian statements. Unlike the 2013–2014 Maidan movement in Ukraine, no EU flags are waved nor are demands for independent statehood voiced. Instead, protesters invoke Belarusian patriotism and self-determination to back their demands for democratic change.
So, is there nothing that the EU and its member states can do to promote regime change in Belarus without risking governance breakdown and violent conflict?
Not quite. Rather than Lukashenko, the EU’s focus should be on Russia. The popular uprising in Belarus has resulted in a situation in which Lukashenko and his autocratic regime is more than ever dependent on Russia with regard to maintaining control over the means of violence as well as the provision of collective goods and services.
Cutting off Lukashenko’s Russian lifeline is likely to increase the chances of the democratic opposition in Belarus tipping the domestic balance of power in their favor and forcing the president and his cronies to negotiate a peaceful transition. The EU and its member states should put maximum pressure on Russia to follow their example and not meddle with the internal affairs of Belarus. Let the Belarusians deal with their own situation!
Putin’s regime is vulnerable, both politically and economically. The coronavirus pandemic has brought down prices for the gas and oil on which Russia’s rent-based economy depends. Attempts to poison a prominent Russian opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, has triggered an international outcry. Even some German politicians have demanded to suspend the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Without denying the brutality of the Navalny incident, so much more is at stake in Belarus.
The EU and its member states should use all the leverage they have, including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and targeted sanctions against Russian oligarchs, to prevent Putin from further interfering in Belarus.
So far, the Belarusian opposition forces have shown remarkable resilience in facing Lukashenko’s repressive regime.
Our research demonstrates that social trust and legitimacy among domestic actors and civil society generate and sustain strong collective-action capacities against autocratic regimes.
Chances are that the Belarusians will be able to work out their own peaceful regime change if left to their own devices. Any outside interference will only play against them.
For all the talk about a European geopolitical strategy, exerting maximum political and economic pressure on Russia would be speaking the language of power that is actually in line with European liberal values.
Tanja A. Börzel is a professor and Jean Monnet Chair at the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science of the Freie Universität Berlin.
Thomas Risse is a professor at the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science of the Freie Universität Berlin.
Comments(6)
'Russia is once again trying to meddle in the internal affairs of one of its neighbors', yes, and it should not. Neither EU (Lybia, Syria, Tchad, Mali, etc...), nor the US (Nicaragua, Cuba, Guatemala, etc...) has ever done it. Sometimes, it even concerns very distant neighbours.
Russia will likely say to the EU 'stay out of Belarus' lets not forget the Russians have a trade pact and defence and security agreement with them, the EU has nothing and is likely not have anything in the future. As the Belarus people are culturally entwined to Russia, this current crisis will have to be solved internally by the Belarus people, the Russians and the EU should keep their noses out of this, but so far thats not happening, Personally I am not sure where this will end up be it good or bad, but one thing for sure is Lukashenko's time is up some time over the next 6 to 12 months he will have to go on permanent holiday to say Sochi.
Cultural ties between Russia and Belarus are a myth perpetrated and engineered by Russia who sees basically any other slavonic nation as belonging to them in every way possible, historically, linguistically, existentially. Notice how Russia denegrates the Belarusian language and denies its existence even, same with Ukrainian. This is a typical chauvinistic trap from Russia which we in the West should not fall for.
Sanctions against oligarchs? On what legal bases? They are going to sue and win in courts. Plus you are going to actually help Putin who has been trying to pressure Russian oligarchs to bring their capital back to Russia.
I found the idea that the EU has to show restraint in relationship to Belarus because if it was more aggressive "it might provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with a pretext to support Lukashenko with Russian security forces" to be silly. I think there is significant evidence that Russia already has provided security forces to prop up the Lukashenko regime including elements of the Russian elite Pskov division that include its GRU military unit attached to it, the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade. There is also every reason to believe that Putin's media specialists have taken control over the government media outlets in the editorial direction it has been taking. The reason Russian security forces on not appearing on the streets of Minsk is because they are not needed, the demonstrations have not fundamentally disrupted the control Lukashenko has up to this point and in particular all moves towards a national general strike have been severely repressed with its labor leaders in many cases jailed and hot spot factories taken over directly by Belarus KGB agents in several cases. Putin is well aware that Lukashenko needs to be replaced and a new puppet leader installed eventually who maintains Russian hegemony with a somewhat more liberal veneer. He is working on that project and probably building a nice retirement home for Lukashenko in Sochi.
Seriously!! stay out of Russia Putin, these countries are strong allies with kinship and cultural links. It would be akin to telling Greeks to stay out of Cyprus or northern Germans not to go to Bavaria. Do you really think Russia is going to listen to this demand I think they will be laughing themselves on the floor. The EU needs to get real they have maybe minor influence but the Russians see this country as there sister state. Not sure what they would do if the Russians did not heed the call, maybe stop nord-stream 2 or cut off the gas supply coming from Russia to most of Europe, what army is going to stop them in the EU? This statement basically is a desperate call as no force and little sanctions will be done, next is Turkey then Russia itself and finally the UK if Brexit goes pear shaped . The foreign policy of the EU is a mess they can't even get the internal countries to agree on migration, refugee's, EEZ security like the Greek, Cyprus, Turkey spat, this is fairyland stuff academics who write on Carnegie must be wondering where is this mob going no direction, no plan, no cohesion its like the 'Tower of Babel' in the bible. Another one attracted my attention the EU wishes to regulate the Chanel Tunnel all the way through to dover the Uk is having none of it they have a treaty with France signed and sealed. But just like the UK breaking the law the EU wishes to change it unilaterally possibly Europe would be cut of as this is the only land link to the UK. God help this lot not sure where they will pick a fight next that they cannot solve.
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