A three-page letter that was sent to German parliamentarians on August 18 makes sober reading.
Ostensibly, the letter is about how Europe’s sanctions against Russia and vice versa might affect the German economy. But the real message that Sigmar Gabriel, Social Democrat leader and minister for economic affairs and energy, Wolfgang Schäuble, federal minister of finance, and Christian Schmidt, food and agriculture minister, want to get across is that Germany’s special relationship with Russia is all but over.
It’s not as if Chancellor Angela Merkel—who will travel to Kiev on August 23—and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier haven’t worked endlessly with Russia to seek some diplomatic solution to end the Ukraine crisis.
But time and again, Russian President Vladimir Putin has spurned their efforts. In doing so, Putin is turning his back on Germany’s decades-old Ostpolitik, under which successive German governments tried to integrate Russia into the West’s system of political, economic, and social values. He has also effectively turned his back on his greatest supporter in Europe. Ostpolitik has run its course.
The ministers’ letter conveys a real sense of the changes taking place in Merkel’s coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats vis-à-vis Russia.
“From the very beginning, we pursued a common European position in order to meet this challenge,” the letter states. “It is also thanks to our efforts that Europe has found a clear, common position. We want a political solution to the conflict in Ukraine. Yet this also means that we are ready to take all necessary steps, together and in solidarity—including all sectors and members states—to lend weight to our position.”
Then comes the part about Russia.
Now it is up to Russia to make its contribution to the resolution of the crisis. Unfortunately, there is little to be seen of that so far. On the contrary, the Russian president does not use his clearly existent influence on the separatists to convince them of moderation and to secure the borders in Europe that are accepted through international law.
With military exercises, a massive presence of troops in the immediate vicinity of the conflict area, and at the least the toleration of the transit of weapons and fighters, Russia is not making an effort for a sustainable deescalation of the situation. This, the West could not leave unanswered. With the sanctions, we want to lend weight to the demands of the EU and the United States that Russia should end destabilizing the situation in Ukraine and play a constructive role in the search for a peaceful solution to the conflict there.
Of course, the ministers know full well the effects of the countersanctions that Russia imposed on German and other European food producers. They write:
The sanctions imposed by the European Union vis-à-vis Russia, but even more the “countermeasures” that Russia took in a demonstrative and arbitrary way, worry German business. We take these worries very seriously.
Beyond that, it has also been the case in the past (for instance, with sanctions against Iran or Syria) that the state does not take responsibility for external risks. These are solely the responsibility of entrepreneurial decisions. Yet we must be aware of the fact that, if the crisis continues to escalate, the number of German companies concerned may increase.
Despite this, the ministers believe that the effect on the German producers “will in all probability be noticeable but manageable.”
That’s not the view of the Ost-Auschuss, an influential committee that lobbies for German companies doing business in Russia, Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and Central Asia. On August 19, the Ost-Auschuss argued how Russia’s sanctions would affect German companies and what losses to expect.
Interestingly, the ministers took an indirect swipe at the Ost-Auschuss and those parliamentarians that have been reluctant to take a firm stance against Putin’s policies. “It is understandable that in the constituencies there will be some uncertainty emerging . . . we must preempt exaggerated worries through objective information,” they note.
Even more revealing is how the ministers weigh up the short-term costs of the sanctions with the long-term policy of standing up to Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea and his military interference in eastern Ukraine. “We must explain why in the long term it would be much more costly for us to tolerate the illegal and destabilizing approach of the Russian side,” the ministers write.
In other words, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government are in for the long haul when it comes to dealing with Russia and resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Now that Germany has abandoned Ostpolitik, Merkel’s government has a chance to put in place a new policy toward Eastern Europe. That will require not only a huge economic and political input from Berlin and its European counterparts. It will also require Eastern Europe’s leaders to reciprocate by introducing reforms and tackling endemic corruption. In short, it will require a new Ostpolitik by both sides.
Note: The August 18 letter written by Ministers Gabriel, Schäuble, and Schmidt has been translated from German to English for this blog by the author.
Comments(16)
I cannot agree more with what has been said on the necessity of a new German policy towards Eastern Europe. This policy should put values and fundamental rights ahead of economic interests, difficult and expensive though it can be. The "message on the importance of universal and democratic values" to be sent by such a new policy should be clear and unequivocal - for every country in the region.
Germany still hasn't figured out that Russia began turning away from Europe when Putin came to power, Putin is focussing on Asia and leaving Europe, this is not something of this year but has been going on for at least 10 years allready. The crisis in Ukraine only speeds up this proces. So it is Germany who is losing Russia.
This partnership between Russia and China will be entertaining to watch. Putin may feel like Poroshenko when he starts playing games with Beijing as he's played with Kyiv. China may decide that Siberia or Vladivostok is not really Russia. Then watch Moscow have a coronary.
To vanyam: wishful thinking. I must notice that your description of that relationship vigorously look like most of relationships slaveminded servants of empire have with USA. I think in psychology there is name for it. It includes envy toward those who don't share same weakness.
Putin is trying to play among the "big boys", with an economy the size of that of Italy or California, based almost entirely on resource extraction. In the long run, this posture is not sustainable, and the West will grow increasingly weary of Putin's "bad boy" tactics.
where is the original letter?
Well,its encouraging to see that some important ministers in Merkel's government see that up to present Ostpolitik failed in full.The question is what next?Here in Poland we tend to be distrustful vis-a-vis Russia and where in principle doubtful as to possibilities to incorporate- in Broad sense- Russia into European way of making policies. Russia always in the past and unfortunately at present understands only Power, often naked military strength and as long as EU and Germany including, will be not prepared to demonstrate might, Putin's Russia will outplay us Europeans either by use of oil/Gas weapons or by military might.Hence its necessary to stand united and show Putin clearly that after annexation of Crimea there is no more steps back.the strongest gesture might be a permanent, fully combat ready NATO base in Poland!
Which will (most likely) not happen. Despite the obviously ripped tablecloth between Germany and Russia "Ostpolitik"-wise there is still the dependency on energy imports from Russia. Which, effectively, limits how far sanctions and political developments can go. German politicians will try to avoid anything that provokes Russia above a certain level ... and permanent NATO bases in Poland and the Baltics count as such. In this they're supported by a considerable majority of German citizens who have absolutely no interest in a confrontation with Russia. In their eyes the economical crisis in Europe, the European demand for German economical strength (and german money) and the fact that for the first time in nearly 20 years the ordinary people have at least partially begun to harvest some of the fruits of their work (via rising wages) leave absolutely no room for geopolitical adventurism in Ukraine, a country that is seen as an economical basket case and a socio-political nuthouse with a culture of self-service and corruption. Add to this the considerable aversion to all things military and you have the perfect recipe for yet another round of "Count me out!"
You'll be losing your chickens continuosly if you keep blaming fox instead of sparrow-hawk whois real culprit. But I don't think you could aknowledge that because in your comment I see typical Polish Russophobic stand. Good luck with USA [what you call "NATO"] military base and acting like Poland is not just one more vassalic USA state. What more you could be honest with yourself and accept credits for Ukraine coup d'état. What is Europe today if not mask for never gone fascist neocolonials.
"the Russian president does not use his clearly existent influence"... Y E S ! It is obvious that Russia in general & Putin more particularly, do not play the game to safeguard peace: if they were of good will & "bona fide"... they would not set their borders so close to US militaries bases, don't you think !
Yes Russia should move their borders back from USA military bases , may be some thing like 800 miles . This could make Russia a very small country . But at least it would be a safe peaceful country .
For Putin - War is politics. Thus, a diplomatic solution is also a military solution. Or otherwise - war and politics are substitutes.
Better to lose Germany than Ukraine.
And there was just an article this morning that Russia was losing Germany... what a laugh! If this is "losing," I hate to think what "winning" might be like. The Russo-Teutonic Empire?
"haven’t worked endlessly with Russia to seek some diplomatic solution over ending the Ukraine crisis." By the way, how did it start? Vilnius and the choice to Yanukovitch: Putin or EU. No compromise, no middle way. Bush style. EU and US role in the overthrow of an elected government. US, we know they allow themselves to do it in foreign lands. But EU, the 28 countries with a democratic government and culture allowing this in one of their neighbours? Something is going very wrong... Some people protested against the coup. The new government came with tanks. They seized them with their bare hands. Other protesters in Odessa were burned alive in an apparent rehearsal of WW2 pogroms, spectacular images, with cheering for their death from the supporters of the new regime. We were not even informed about it. And people revolted and started a war. Russians help, of course, but Putin?, not so sure.... It is just how I feel...shame....our "values"? Lost.
"The sovereignty and territorial integrity - fundamental values. It is about ensuring the independence and unity of our country, a reliable protection of the territory of the constitutional system, timely neutralization of internal and external threats. " "Today, the world is increasingly the language of ultimatums and sanctions. The very concept of state sovereignty is eroded. Objectionable regimes, countries that pursue independent policies or simply stand in the way of someone's interests, are destabilized. " "Attempts to destabilize the political situation, to weaken Russia, hit the vulnerable, problem areas, of course, been taken and will be taken in order, first of all, to make us more pliable when addressing issues in the interests of other states in the international arena." "We have to think about additional steps to reduce the dependence of the national economy and its financial system by unfavorable external factors., I mean not only the volatility in global markets, but also potential political risks." Meeting of the Security Council July 22, 2014, 15:40 The Kremlin, Moscow Under the presidency of Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, a meeting of the Security Council. From these quotes mean that Putin has projected all the possible movements of the West in broad front, but also of Germany in particular.
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