Carnegie Europe
With the election of a hardliner as Iranian president, eight years of European thinking that Tehran could be a partner will come to an end. It’s time for the EU to address not only the nuclear file but also regional security threats.
At the latest NATO summit, allies jointly identified China as a systemic challenge to alliance security. But diverging views on China’s challenge among the partners hinder a consensus on NATO action.
At the NATO summit, President Biden will have to deal with Donald Trump’s pernicious legacy. The biggest challenges include Russia and Turkey, both of which have undermined the alliance solidarity.
It took the hijacking of a plane and the kidnapping of a journalist to shake Europe out of its complacency over Belarus. Beyond sanctions, the EU’s response should include supporting Belarusian society and reconsidering Nord Stream 2.
The EU’s hollow statements expressing “concern” over the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflagration will not deter either party. Unless the Europeans use what little leverage they have, they can forget about having a strategic role in the region.
The renewed fighting between Israel and Hamas should be a catalyst for ending the unsustainable status quo in the region. Negotiating a ceasefire and rebuilding trust will require an immense diplomatic effort by the United States and regional actors.
The Europeans have paid lip service to a two-state solution based on an independent Palestine alongside Israel. But without a clear plan to make it happen, such a solution will remain unattainable.
Biden’s recognition of the killing and deportation of Armenians as genocide has caused outrage in Turkey. Dealing with a nation’s past is immensely complex. It can only be done by a country’s leaders and citizens.
Russia is bound to have prepared for different military scenarios in Ukraine. Spreading uncertainty is an essential part of Putin’s policy.
There is no consensus in NATO in favor of Ukraine’s membership. What the most determined Western countries can do is provide intelligence and military support to Ukraine, including weaponry and capability building.
Europe will have to juggle environmental concerns, access to resources, and the Arctic’s growing geostrategic role. This will require cooperation with all the major players, including China, if the region is to remain stable and peaceful.
The Europeans need to ditch their passive attitude toward trying to restart talks between the United States and Iran. Time is of the essence: Tehran may be just four months away from amassing enough fissile material for an atomic bomb.
The Digital Services Act will require social media platforms to share data with researchers. But to understand influence operations, the EU must facilitate longer-term research collaboration between industry and academia.
The poisoning of Alexei Navalny and his detention in Moscow should spur the EU into finally adopting a tough and united strategy toward the Russia of President Vladimir Putin.
When Joe Biden takes office as U.S. president, the EU will have four years to fireproof and rebuild relations with America. The EU must make an energetic investment in saving its most important relationship.
The German Social Democrats are undermining both the safety of Germany’s armed forces abroad and Berlin’s reputation among allies by picking a fight over armed drones.
Incoming U.S. president Joe Biden offers a chance to renew transatlantic ties and forge a common EU-U.S. policy toward China. But for that to happen, the Europeans must agree on how to deal with Beijing.
Come January 2021, the United States and Germany will have to move quickly to resolve big differences, notably over China and Russia. At stake is the strength of transatlantic ties between America and Europe.
Europe’s leaders cannot expect a free ride from the incoming Biden presidency. It’s time to prepare the ground on security, defense, and strategy if the changing transatlantic relationship is to remain relevant.
Joe Biden will be America’s next president, but relieved European leaders are deluded if they expect a return to the past for the transatlantic relationship.
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