Driven by domestic considerations, Turkey has triggered a major crisis inside NATO by blocking the Finnish and Swedish membership bids. This move inevitably plays into the hands of the Kremlin.
Putin’s war in Ukraine has shattered Germany’s illusions about bringing Russia closer to Europe. A change in Berlin’s approach to Moscow would benefit Franco-German ties and the entire EU.
Precariously located at the edge of the war in Ukraine, Moldova is thus far coping with Russian security threats. But the conflict’s socioeconomic fallout poses real dangers.
As Russia continues its war in Ukraine, the EU’s security and defense policies are undergoing major shifts. Brussels may finally be getting real(ist) about hard power.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is making neutral Finland and Sweden seriously consider joining NATO. Such membership would strengthen the alliance’s defenses and greatly increase security in the Baltic region.
Geopolitical realities have changed considerably since 2017, when Macron was first elected. In his second term as president, the Russo-Ukrainian war will inform French—and European—thinking.
At this critical moment, Europeans must show commitment and resolve in their support for Kyiv. Divisions within the EU risk buying Russia time and weakening Ukraine.
Policymakers should increase their support for Ukraine and reassess the nature of this war. Putin may be consolidating a totalitarian regime that will try to subjugate as many peoples in its neighborhood as possible.
Contrary to expectations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not weakened Marine Le Pen’s electoral position. Nevertheless, the political context in which France’s Russia policy will be formulated has changed.
A Russian victory in Ukraine would change the map of Europe. Germany could help prevent this by sending vital military equipment to Kyiv and banning Russian energy imports.
President Zelensky seems willing to accept a neutral status for Ukraine in return for firm security guarantees. But without the required political will on the Russian side, a mutually acceptable deal may be out of reach.
For decades, EU citizens enjoyed peace, low food prices, and unlimited access to travel and consumer goods. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and the deepening climate crisis—old habits and assumptions must change.
With energy prices rising, EU solidarity with Ukraine may start to wane. Sharing the war’s economic burden will be crucial for keeping the public on board.
NATO must double down on deterrence and collective defense to stop any Russian attacks on its territory. That may mean a return to some level of conscription among more European allies.
Moscow is seeking to revise the existing world order. Liberal Europe’s biggest mistake would be compromising on its core values and legitimizing Putin’s approach to international politics.
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed sanctions of an unprecedented scale. While these raise the cost of war for Moscow, on their own they are unlikely to change Putin’s calculations.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point for the EU. When boosting its capabilities and resilience, Europe must not neglect engagement with the wider world.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, no country in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood can feel secure about its future. Strengthening the resilience of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova must become the union's immediate priority.
Ten years after Strategic Europe was launched, the EU, with Germany playing a pivotal role, may finally start acting strategically. It will mean shattering illusions about war, peace, and stability.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. We asked Carnegie Europe’s scholars to give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era.