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With energy prices rising, EU solidarity with Ukraine may start to wane. Sharing the war’s economic burden will be crucial for keeping the public on board.
NATO must double down on deterrence and collective defense to stop any Russian attacks on its territory. That may mean a return to some level of conscription among more European allies.
Moscow is seeking to revise the existing world order. Liberal Europe’s biggest mistake would be compromising on its core values and legitimizing Putin’s approach to international politics.
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed sanctions of an unprecedented scale. While these raise the cost of war for Moscow, on their own they are unlikely to change Putin’s calculations.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point for the EU. When boosting its capabilities and resilience, Europe must not neglect engagement with the wider world.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, no country in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood can feel secure about its future. Strengthening the resilience of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova must become the union's immediate priority.
Ten years after Strategic Europe was launched, the EU, with Germany playing a pivotal role, may finally start acting strategically. It will mean shattering illusions about war, peace, and stability.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. We asked Carnegie Europe’s scholars to give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era.
Belarus is instrumental in Russia’s ongoing military attack on Ukraine. Developments since the 2020 rigged election in Belarus and the forthcoming changes to its constitution reflect Lukashenko’s growing dependence on Putin.*
Emmanuel Macron’s bid to build a “Europe that protects” is not misguided; it outflanks both the siege mentality of a defensive continent and the artlessness of a defenseless one. But it will remain a mere ambition if Europe fails to protect itself.
Putin continues to focus on the preservation of his system by means of Russian domestic and foreign policy. His threat of invading Ukraine is leaving other troubling developments out of the headlines.
Russia’s threats to invade Ukraine again should lead to a fundamental change in Berlin’s policy toward Moscow. If not, Eastern Europe will become a contested region that destabilizes the EU.
President Macron’s diplomatic overtures to end the Ukraine-Russia crisis won him cautious praise but also drew criticism. While some EU member states are skeptical of Paris, the alternatives to French leadership are few.
Russia’s military buildup along Ukraine’s border has prompted a coherent response from NATO and exposed the disunity of the EU. Without a clear policy toward its eastern neighbors and Moscow, the union cannot meet today’s geopolitical challenges.
Germany’s refusal to provide military assistance to Ukraine has baffled many of its European and NATO allies. If Berlin does not adopt a bolder, unambiguous stance toward Russia, it will undermine the West’s deterrence efforts.
Ankara’s drone sales to Kiev have angered Moscow. A military escalation in and around Ukraine would endanger Turkey’s relationship with Russia, impair its participation in NATO operations, or both.
Faced with Russia’s military threat against Ukraine and demands for NATO to stop further expansion, the West wants a dialogue with Moscow. Diplomatic efforts that are not underpinned by hard power may not be enough to avert a war.
A rift in Kazakhstan’s elite has violently played out in the streets of the country. Foreign troop support may have kept President Tokayev in power, but it has also linked his political future to Vladimir Putin.
Transatlantic disunity and a lack of strategy over how to deal with Russia’s ultimatum is placing Europe’s security architecture at risk. The West has no choice but to put up a strong united front.
Differing threat perceptions in Western and Central Europe combined with democratic backsliding risk creating dangerous fractures within the EU. Building a shared understanding of today’s security challenges must go hand in hand with strengthening democracy in the bloc.
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