Carnegie Europe
The European Union must ensure the survival of Russian civil society that is now subject to unprecedented repression. It also needs a strategy to respond quickly in case a narrow window of opportunity for democratic change opens in Russia.
A defining feature of Russia’s leadership is the refusal to deal with the country’s Stalinist past. Until the Kremlin stops whitewashing history, a politically stable relationship between Europe and Russia cannot exist.
At the NATO summit, President Biden will have to deal with Donald Trump’s pernicious legacy. The biggest challenges include Russia and Turkey, both of which have undermined the alliance solidarity.
The completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline deals Russia several cards that weaken Germany, divide Europe, and blackmail Ukraine. If the EU is to engage globally, it must stop serving as Moscow’s playground.
Biden’s recognition of the killing and deportation of Armenians as genocide has caused outrage in Turkey. Dealing with a nation’s past is immensely complex. It can only be done by a country’s leaders and citizens.
There is no consensus in NATO in favor of Ukraine’s membership. What the most determined Western countries can do is provide intelligence and military support to Ukraine, including weaponry and capability building.
The Biden administration is making the defense of human rights one of its foreign policy priorities. Other democracies, particularly in Europe, should actively support this shift.
The leaders of the EU’s institutions and member governments need Germany to shape a strategic policy toward Russia. But Chancellor Angela Merkel is not prepared to take on this task.
Europe will have to juggle environmental concerns, access to resources, and the Arctic’s growing geostrategic role. This will require cooperation with all the major players, including China, if the region is to remain stable and peaceful.
Josep Borrell’s trip to Moscow confirmed the miserable state of European foreign policy, which lacks strategy and direction. Starting with Germany, member states need to think beyond their own national interests.
The EU has approved a new global human rights sanctions regime. But will national interests continue to prevent the union from effectively protecting people in places like Belarus, China, and Russia?
Smaller EU countries are punching above their weight in defending values and supporting pro-democracy forces in the EU’s neighborhood. They are preparing for the day after in Minsk and Moscow.
The poisoning of Alexei Navalny and his detention in Moscow should spur the EU into finally adopting a tough and united strategy toward the Russia of President Vladimir Putin.
Come January 2021, the United States and Germany will have to move quickly to resolve big differences, notably over China and Russia. At stake is the strength of transatlantic ties between America and Europe.
Russia’s peace deal for Armenia and Azerbaijan has halted the war over Nagorny Karabakh and exposed the Western countries as bystanders. The Europeans must now try to help shape a lasting peace on the ground.
The world is in desperate need of American leadership. But what should America’s allies and competitors expect from the next U.S. president? Here are Carnegie’s views from China, Europe, India, Lebanon, Russia, and the United States.
President Lukashenko’s meeting with imprisoned opposition members could be consequential for Belarus. Meanwhile, the EU and especially Germany must keep diplomatic channels open to both Minsk and Moscow.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are blaming each other for the latest surge of violence over Nagorny Karabakh. The consequences for the region are unpredictable, but much will depend on the intentions of Russia and Turkey.
The European Union and its member states should put maximum pressure on Russia to follow their example and not meddle with the internal affairs of Belarus. Let the Belarusians deal with their own situation.
The rapidly eroding trust between the UK and the EU casts a dark shadow over the future of European foreign policy cooperation. But as the eventful summer of 2020 has shown, that cooperation is much needed.
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