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Turkey has been undergoing important political, economic, and foreign policy shifts that impact its European partners. But with Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections approaching, what matters most is the kind of society voters want for themselves.
In the run-up to the 2023 elections, Turkey’s foreign policy will be shaped by domestic politics. To stand a chance of winning, the opposition must unite and put forward a cohesive electoral program.
Getting forty-four leaders from across Europe to meet in Prague was an achievement in itself. But it involved substituting values and principles for realpolitik and left fundamental questions open.
Both Moscow and Ankara are benefiting from Turkey’s mediating role since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strategically, however, Putin has the upper hand.
Driven by domestic considerations, Turkey has triggered a major crisis inside NATO by blocking the Finnish and Swedish membership bids. This move inevitably plays into the hands of the Kremlin.
Ankara’s drone sales to Kiev have angered Moscow. A military escalation in and around Ukraine would endanger Turkey’s relationship with Russia, impair its participation in NATO operations, or both.
For the third time in three decades, Ankara and Yerevan are trying to normalize relations. In a region plagued by rivalry, distrust, and historical grievances, this will be no easy feat.
To avoid an open rule-of-law dialogue with the EU, Turkey is being selective in its areas of engagement with the bloc. The union must make clear that compartmentalizing EU-Turkey relations to suit Ankara’s domestic political convenience is not acceptable.
With twenty months left until Turkey’s legislative and presidential elections, the political debate will be fierce. The West may choose to sit it out rather than see its relationship with Ankara deteriorate even further.
At the NATO summit, President Biden will have to deal with Donald Trump’s pernicious legacy. The biggest challenges include Russia and Turkey, both of which have undermined the alliance solidarity.
Biden’s recognition of the killing and deportation of Armenians as genocide has caused outrage in Turkey. Dealing with a nation’s past is immensely complex. It can only be done by a country’s leaders and citizens.
Ankara’s goal in dealing with Europe is to limit the future agenda to trade, economic matters, and refugee arrangements. In a diminishing space for civil society, academic freedom, and human rights, EU leaders are divided over what strategy to pursue with Turkey.
The EU has approved a new global human rights sanctions regime. But will national interests continue to prevent the union from effectively protecting people in places like Belarus, China, and Russia?
Europe’s leaders cannot expect a free ride from the incoming Biden presidency. It’s time to prepare the ground on security, defense, and strategy if the changing transatlantic relationship is to remain relevant.
Europe is sorely in need of a strategic culture, regardless of who wins the 2020 U.S. election. With all the instability in the EU’s Eastern and Southern neighborhoods, this is more necessary than ever.
The era of European benevolence and benign neglect with Ankara is over; Turkey is now openly adversarial toward the entire European Union and NATO. It’s time for the EU to clarify its response.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are blaming each other for the latest surge of violence over Nagorny Karabakh. The consequences for the region are unpredictable, but much will depend on the intentions of Russia and Turkey.
After so many years of striving to build up its foreign policy credentials, the EU faces—over the Eastern Mediterranean—a real test of its ambitions and capabilities as an effective foreign policy actor.
The unanimity rule on EU foreign policy often has a debilitating impact on Europe’s ability to act in a robust and united way on the world stage and in its neighborhood.
The rapidly eroding trust between the UK and the EU casts a dark shadow over the future of European foreign policy cooperation. But as the eventful summer of 2020 has shown, that cooperation is much needed.
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