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Faced with Russia’s military threat against Ukraine and demands for NATO to stop further expansion, the West wants a dialogue with Moscow. Diplomatic efforts that are not underpinned by hard power may not be enough to avert a war.
This week's high-level diplomatic meetings involving Russia, the United States, and NATO mark a departure from recent years of minimal contact. Putin has forced this crisis diplomacy upon the West, and for him, this already constitutes success: it shows the world that Russia is a globally significant power to be reckoned with.
Transatlantic disunity and a lack of strategy over how to deal with Russia’s ultimatum is placing Europe’s security architecture at risk. The West has no choice but to put up a strong united front.
Since October 2020, the European Union has gradually extended its sanctions against Belarus. Aimed to change the calculations and dynamics within the ruling elite, sanctions are now perceived as less important by the Belarusian people given the authoritarian regime's consolidation of power.
With increased summitry and frequent communication between Moscow and Washington, present-day Russia-U.S. relations harks back to the Cold War. To defuse tensions, the Americans must draw the Russians to the table and negotiate from a position of strength.
Civil society is under attack in the EU’s neighborhood. To defend democracy, academic freedom, and independent thought, Europe should step up its assistance to repressed voices.*
European governments need full-spectrum geopolitical engagement and commitment to the eastern region, not merely the kind of Eastern Partnership incrementalism seen at the summit.
What is at stake is the post-Cold War era. Russia does not want to give up its control or influence over eastern Europe, whether it is Ukraine, Belarus, or Azerbaijan.
Differing threat perceptions in Western and Central Europe combined with democratic backsliding risk creating dangerous fractures within the EU. Building a shared understanding of today’s security challenges must go hand in hand with strengthening democracy in the bloc.
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