Carnegie Europe
- Search
- Global Resources
- Research Areas
Ongoing Projects
Completed Projects
Blogs
- Publications
- Experts
- Events
- About Us
- Join Our Email List
Shortcuts
Our Network
- Research Areas
There are striking parallels between the Russian invasion of Chechnya in 1994 and of Ukraine today. In both cases, the Russian leader believed that war would be over quickly, and even that many people would welcome them as liberators. In both cases, the Chechens and Ukrainians rallied and fought back.
While President Vladimir Putin expected little resistance in Ukraine, as was the case in Crimea in 2014, instead he is experiencing what Russia faced in its 1994 attempted invasion of Chechnya. In both cases, once Russian forces encountered political resistance, they had no plan B, leading to intense fighting.
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed sanctions of an unprecedented scale. While these raise the cost of war for Moscow, on their own they are unlikely to change Putin’s calculations.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point for the EU. When boosting its capabilities and resilience, Europe must not neglect engagement with the wider world.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, no country in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood can feel secure about its future. Strengthening the resilience of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova must become the union's immediate priority.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s speech to parliament fundamentally shifted Germany’s foreign, security, and defense policies, with major regional repercussions.
Had Putin not invaded Ukraine, his legacy may have featured a healthy Russian economy and improved relations with the West. Instead, Russia’s war has brought Moscow closer to pariah state status and given the EU’s unity on foreign and security policy a much needed boost.
Ten years after Strategic Europe was launched, the EU, with Germany playing a pivotal role, may finally start acting strategically. It will mean shattering illusions about war, peace, and stability.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. We asked Carnegie Europe’s scholars to give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era.
Belarus is instrumental in Russia’s ongoing military attack on Ukraine. Developments since the 2020 rigged election in Belarus and the forthcoming changes to its constitution reflect Lukashenko’s growing dependence on Putin.*