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In Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mind, invasion is the only way to stop Ukraine’s westward drift. While there is little that can stop Moscow in the short term, Ukrainian resistance, Western sanctions, and opposition within Russia spell trouble for Putin in the longer term.
Emmanuel Macron’s bid to build a “Europe that protects” is not misguided; it outflanks both the siege mentality of a defensive continent and the artlessness of a defenseless one. But it will remain a mere ambition if Europe fails to protect itself.
The European Union’s struggle to respond to the buildup of Russian troops along the Eastern Ukrainian border reveals the bloc’s internal divisions but also the need to rethink the continent’s security architecture.
Putin continues to focus on the preservation of his system by means of Russian domestic and foreign policy. His threat of invading Ukraine is leaving other troubling developments out of the headlines.
Russia’s threats to invade Ukraine again should lead to a fundamental change in Berlin’s policy toward Moscow. If not, Eastern Europe will become a contested region that destabilizes the EU.
President Macron’s diplomatic overtures to end the Ukraine-Russia crisis won him cautious praise but also drew criticism. While some EU member states are skeptical of Paris, the alternatives to French leadership are few.
While Orbán’s relationship with Putin may seem to indicate weakness in NATO’s Eastern flank, the Ukraine standoff has actually demonstrated the value of the alliance to Central and Eastern European countries, many of whom have stood firmly in support of the Western response to Russian threats.
Russia’s military buildup along Ukraine’s border has prompted a coherent response from NATO and exposed the disunity of the EU. Without a clear policy toward its eastern neighbors and Moscow, the union cannot meet today’s geopolitical challenges.
Germany’s refusal to provide military assistance to Ukraine has baffled many of its European and NATO allies. If Berlin does not adopt a bolder, unambiguous stance toward Russia, it will undermine the West’s deterrence efforts.
It’s leaving the West weaker and divided on the Ukraine crisis.