Germany’s security services are taking no chances. They are positioned outside and inside Berlin’s Charité hospital where Russia’s most outspoken opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, is being treated.
He was flown to Berlin when German Chancellor Angela Merkel personally intervened to have Navalny brought to Germany after he fell ill on a domestic flight back from Siberia to Moscow. He was at first treated in a hospital in Omsk. There, his wife was not allowed to see him. The doctors prevaricated about his condition.
Navalny’s supporters said he had been poisoned after drinking tea at the airport. Doctors at the Charité, who by now have had enough experience in treating individuals who have been victims of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to silence his critics, have confirmed that he was poisoned. Navalny is still in a medically induced coma.
Merkel and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called on Moscow to launch an immediate investigation: “In view of Mr Navalny’s major role in Russia’s political opposition, the country’s authorities are urgently called upon to fully investigate this act as a matter of urgency—and to do so in a completely transparent way,” they said in a statement. “Those responsible must be identified and brought to justice.” That will be the day.
There have been far too many cases in which Putin’s critics have been killed or attempts have been made on their lives. Navalny, an indefatigable campaigner who has exposed the corruption that has come to characterize Putin’s circle, is just the latest in the Kremlin’s attempts to snuff out any opposition.
It coincides with the extraordinary events unfolding in neighboring Belarus. There, hundreds of thousands of citizens on August 23, 2020, again took to the streets to protest the way in which Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was reelected on August 9.
The protest leaders have enough evidence to show the results were falsified. And despite the arrests, the beatings, the torture, the disappearances, the killings of activists, the intimidation, and the police brutality, people have not been cowed into submission.
On August 19, the Belarusian chief prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into the newly established thirty-five–member Coordination Council, which is calling for new, free, and fair elections. Three of its leaders, Nobel Prize winner for literature Svetlana Alexievich, Olga Kovalkova, and Sergei Dylevsky, were detained. So was Anatoly Bokan, one of the strike leaders at a potash plant.
It’s too difficult to predict how events will unfold in Belarus, the EU’s immediate neighbor. So far, Lukashenko shows no willingness to negotiate with the Coordination Council. After over a quarter of a century in power, the idea of compromise or negotiation or sharing power seems out of the question for him. Just as it is for Putin.
But using force against peaceful demonstrators or finding ways to provoke them into violence won’t return Belarus to the status quo ante. Both Belarus and Russia, to differing degrees, are already entering complex transition modes.
Since that is the case, and since European leaders—if they don’t already know it—now have instability on their doorstep, Germany should exert its influence.
With regard to Russia, Berlin can act in a number of ways. Treating Navalny in Berlin was the decent, humane thing to do. But it will hardly change Putin. If Berlin or Paris did offer Navalny asylum, that would just be one major dissident out of the Kremlin’s way.
Instead, the German government can step up its support for Russian civil society. This could be done by supporting the independent social media, granting scholarships to young people, and supporting environmentalists. Above all, Merkel could stop the construction of Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline that will transport Russian gas directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea.
Leaving aside the pressure her government is under by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which has threatened sanctions on European companies involved in the project, Germany has no political or economic reasons to become more dependent on Russian energy. Indeed, by continuing to support Nord Stream 2, Germany is compensating Russia for today’s very low energy prices.
Abandoning Nord Stream 2 would be seen by the German public as giving into American pressure. But continuing with it makes a mockery of Europe’s and Germany’s policies to diversify its energy sources.
Moreover, after so many years during which Germany’s political elites hoped that economic ties would bring Russia closer to Europe, Putin’s style of leadership has proved the opposite. Nord Stream 2 won’t change the Kremlin’s course.
The same could be said of Lukashenko.
Belarus’s economy is very closely tied to Russia. It gives Moscow some leverage over the regime in Minsk. But Germany—and the European Union—see all too well how the old guard is struggling. Lukashenko can still resort to more force to assert his rule, but it would be a very high price to pay.
Germany and the EU need to support Belarusian civil society—as Lithuania has been doing for several years. But that’s not enough. They need to engage Lukashenko. This is not interfering, despite the state propaganda blaming NATO and “foreign” powers for the demonstrations. The demonstrators are not calling for their country to join the EU or NATO. They are trying to make a peaceful, nonviolent transition away from an authoritarian regime toward democracy.
That’s the biggest threat to the regime in Minsk—and to the one in Moscow.
Comments(11)
> Germany and the EU need to support Belarusian civil society Russia needs to support civil societies in USA, Germany, etc... that includes such groups of US, German, etc citizens as QAnon, AFD, etc...
We all know that the matter is very delicate because Russia is not going to allow Belarus to "escape" from its orbit. But the time has come for Angela Merkel to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and to buy power from her US ally. This is an important strategy for Western democracies! And for Germany to propose to Washington the removal of tariffs on European steel and aluminum ... That is a strategic alliance! It's time for Merkel to say openly, publicly, before retiring from politics, that the U.S.A. is the indispensable ally for the economic and social well-being of Germany and all of Europe! The events in Asia Indo-Pacific are precipitating and the election looks like war, the military confrontation between China and Washington's allies ... Europe must be ready to face Russia. Josep Borrell must not be "more papist than the Pope" It should only warn Russia that we will be friends until Moscow decides otherwise. If the Russians want war, we will defend ourselves, and it will be a tragedy; and Russia will regret having rejected friends in the European Union.
Yes. Europe should buy extremely expensive American oil. Furthermore, Europe needs to spend the required 2% of GDP on military. And no.. the US doesn't need European steel. Europe needs the US, not the other way around. We beat Germany in WW2. We own Germany and they owe the world a debt they can never repay.
I agree with most of you're opinions Alfonso but I don't think "Russia wants war" they just want to control the countries straddling their borders using them as a buffer with Nato, but just now this is Putins logic hopefully one day he leaves the scene and another more pragmatic Russian comes to the fore. But as long as he's there shut all the doors and keep him out including Nord stream pipeline. Germany is undermining the free peoples of the west by doing deals with this poison devil.
Post all the reviews! It is the only way to make the European Union great !! This is democracy ...
I think the same as you about it, Peter, I don't think Vladimir Putin is foolish enough to get into a major war. The Russian president does not have much money for a confrontation with NATO; it is setting aside the treasury for multi-million dollar investments in the Arctic. Vladimir, his loyal business friends, and the next generation of all this "Orthodox Christian" establishment want to leave a good inheritance and a good country to live and grow big ... Putin's wars are small, mediocre, ridiculous, dilapidated and always spectacular in cheap videos. Pure situationism of obsolete machinery adrift to contemplate the landscape of war without great losses. Matters at home are becoming more complex every day. Putin is dedicated to endure ... resist. Saludos cordiales, Peter.
Very good analysis and great advice on abandoning the pipeline. Why award a despot? I really feel terrible (as an American) when I read comments as submitted by "America First" below. Sorry to the Germans for these kinds of comments.
Germany made the decision to step out of nuclear plants and will need more gas to be able to close coal power plants. If there would be no NS2, the gas would come from Poland and/or Ukraine. But it would be the same Russian gas. But in that case Poland and Ukraine would be content. So what is the goal of this game? To stop NS2 would cost around ten billion Euros, the US liquid gas of the same amount +4 billion Euro/per year. G. Schroeder had said that in Bundestag. Is it really a reasonable solution? Is it really the best advice to let Germany blackmail? An unbiased analyze should consider that a president in a large state can hardly be directly responsible for everything what happens there. It is valid for Trump as well as Putin. As far as I remember no western commentator made President Yeltsin responsible for Wild Nineties and lot of killings committed then e.g. of Mayor Petuchin, who was so nasty that he dared to ask Mr. Khodorkovsky to pay taxes to his town. I hope Angela Merkel will not follow the advice.
From an economic standpoint, Germany would be fully right to finish the pipeline and take Russian gas. However Germany must grow up and understand the world is not about economics only and there is a cost to a clean conscience and democratic principals. Germany cannot have it's cake and eat it too. As a side note, Schoeder is about as non-biased a person that could have been cited given the millions he has made as Chairman of the pipeline company and attends Putin's birthday parties....There must be other gas than just Russian and American that can be supplied. I hope that can be found.
Vaclavzak you’re absolutely right to raise what is a geopolitical rather than purely economic issue. (I’ll leave Herr Schroeder’s role in the project out of this though.) That ‘other’ pipeline through the Ukraine (and Poland) supplies around 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports. And, historically, it’s been used by Gazprom (sorry Putin) to apply political pressure on the Ukraine. What better way to keep the Ukraine (and possibly others) in Russia’s sphere of influence by diversifying the route for supplies into western Europe?
Facts and beliefs: 'Navalny's supporters said he has been poisoned after drinking tea... has he? 'Those responsible must be identified and brought to justice'. They should..."There are too many cases in which Putin's critics have been killed or agressed". May be, but different cases are mixed. In contrast with the assumption, Putin is far from controlling everything (neither was Obama, neither is Trump). Extremely doubtful that the murders of Anna Pölitovskaya or Nemtsov had anything to do with Putin, the role of Kadyrov is probably larger in both cases. But who wants a renewed war in Tchetchnya? The execution of traitors in the UK is a completely different case, where the secret services probably do not even need the explicit approval of the head of the state. Finally, contrary to the statement Nordstream2 is not only a 'german' enterprise. Other EU companies :Engie(France-Belgium),Shell(Netherlands)supplied 10% each. That Navalny should have been attacked is bad enough. No evidence links it today to 'Putin' or Gazprom. It is more likely that 'the russian system of power' has reacted to potential revelations of corruption.
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