Since becoming German chancellor back in November 2005, Angela Merkel has seen three American presidents go. This will not be the case with U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office in January 2021.
Because Germany is Europe’s most important country and Merkel its most important leader, Biden’s team doesn’t have much time to tackle some thorny issues with her. The chancellor will likely leave office about nine months after Biden enters the White House. Before then, on December 31, 2020, Merkel will have ended her last six-month stint as the EU’s rotating president.
It has been six months plagued by the coronavirus pandemic (literally), by Hungary and Poland’s toxic blackmail to stop the introduction of a rule-of-law mechanism by blocking EU funds designed to support member states hard hit by the virus, and by Brexit negotiations swamped in London by infighting in UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government.
The next six months could provide Merkel with more headaches. Much will depend on Biden’s approach to Europe in general and Germany in particular.
Unlike the outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump, who had only disdain for the European Union, a particular dislike for Merkel, and delight over Brexit, Biden is the opposite.
The president-elect supports a strong Europe. He appreciates Merkel’s role in Ukraine where she was instrumental in forging a (far from perfect) agreement to end the war in the eastern part of the country that is still occupied by pro-Russia forces.
And unlike Trump, Biden has made it clear that any Brexit deal must not compromise the Good Friday Agreement of 1999, which ended years of violence in Northern Ireland. That accord was made possible by the immense diplomatic input of the administration of former U.S. president Bill Clinton and of the British and Irish governments of the time.
Also unlike Trump, Biden warned London that any kind of U.S.-UK trade deal was off the table if Brexit undermined the Good Friday Agreement.
That means a lot to Merkel.
She never wanted Britain to leave the EU, partly because of the special economic, political, and diplomatic role London played in the EU, but also because of what it would mean for the balance of power in Europe. And she is a staunch defender of the Good Friday Agreement.
But Biden’s pro-European, pro-German stance comes with a price. And so it should.
If, as Merkel said in her congratulatory message to Biden, the “transatlantic friendship is indispensable if we are to deal with the major challenges of our time,” then she has to deliver on a few fronts.
The first is China.
Beijing has had an easy run in Europe. It has pursued a policy of divide and rule. China’s attraction as a huge market for several EU member states—especially Germany—went unchallenged until recently. Indeed, the EU’s response to Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong has been close to shameful. It’s as if trade ties mattered more than defending democrats protesting to protect their freedoms.
Trump’s trade war with China and his insistence that Europeans side with the United States in abandoning Chinese technology used for 5G mobile networks exposed big divisions inside the EU. For far too long, Merkel prevaricated.
Yes, she supported a special EU investment screening process that would help prevent China from acquiring sensitive strategic assets in Europe. But Chinese companies already have substantial shares in major European infrastructure projects, which potentially carries security risks. That is why her lenient attitude to 5G is puzzling.
If Merkel is committed to the transatlantic relationship and security, Berlin has to be far more active in pushing the EU toward agreeing a coherent policy on China—and one that dovetails or meshes with the incoming Biden administration.
Indeed, a common stance on China could be one of the major elements in modernizing the transatlantic relationship, which for far too long has focused on NATO. Furthermore, a united approach would weaken Beijing’s ability to divide the Europeans and deny it the chance to weaken EU-U.S. ties.
The second front Merkel must deliver on is Russia.
EU-U.S. ties have also been tested by Merkel’s unswerving support for Nord Stream 2, another contentious issue between Washington and Berlin.
This almost-completed second pipeline through the Baltic Sea will crown Russia’s goal of bypassing Ukraine to send gas directly to Germany. Trump threatened sanctions against firms involved in the construction of the project. Not only that: he had bipartisan support for this, a rare aspect of his presidency.
To increase pressure on Germany, the final draft of the U.S. defense policy bill for 2021 will extend sanctions to companies (and ships) that help complete the construction of the pipeline, in addition to those that provide insurance, reinsurance, testing, inspection, and certification services.
The German government and trade lobbies have criticized the sanctions, claiming they are interfering in European legislation and in Berlin’s sovereignty. In turn, the U.S. position and the antipathy to Trump has increased anti-American sentiment in Germany.
The Biden administration is unlikely to change course on Nord Stream 2 or Chinese 5G technology. But this is about Germany and the United States sharing a common threat perception. How Russia uses energy and China technology for geopolitics are two such threats.
As the Merkel era draws slowly to a close, she and Biden have a window to narrow the gap between Germany (and Europe) and the United States. This could push forward and restore trust in the transatlantic relationship.
Comments(5)
Modernizing the Trans-Atlantic relationship means cementing a second cold war. Are the German Social Democrats willing to go down that path? Are the Greens or others? German equivocation has finally reached the end-game: Cold War or an alternative. But Merkle never had an alternative policy to NATO expansion, the demise of the ABM and neo-liberal German industry European hegemony. Now even the INF Treaty has been left for dead. Merkle did little and has little to say. Is it any wonder that CDU voting totals have decreased throughout the Chancellor's reign. If it wasn't for so-called national unity -- conservative partnership with its ideological rivals -- German government would be in chaos. But what good did such a partnership do for the the Social Dems? Now the jig is up for both major German parties. At least FM Heiko Maas has the good sense to understand that if there is to be a cold war, Iran will side with the China-Russia entente. So, Maas believes EU policy must change because Tehran will never agree to alter its missile program and regional behavior. More importantly, in the face of German industrial and financial hegemony will the EU even hold together. Divisions north and south, east and west, persist. Rule of law is a mere fig leaf to the real issue in the EU -- massive economic inequality and the vast discontent of the working and lower classes across the length and breadth of the continent. The modern perception that Germany won WWII is only getting stronger. And the totality of authoritarianism by the ECB and Commission toward all actors belies the treaty obligations of voluntary association. All across the EU South, what happened in 2015 to the Greek Syriza will not be forgotten. Greece's banks had a literal "gun to their heads" and it was either capitulate or leave. Athens could do little, but Britain decided to leave. And given the circumstances, rightly so. In Washington, the city is divided like two armed camps. This is NOT an exaggeration! Trumpism (America First) is alive and well. And so too is left-wing Democratic Party neo-isolationism. Biden's neo-con, liberal internationalism is in the distinct minority, especially when concerning Europe. "Pay up or shut up" is what American voters are telling their European NATO counterparts. But there is no strategic vision in Washington either. America simply does not have the financial wherewithal to lead a global charge against China-Russia-Iran. It's best for all to seek an alternative.
You, Miss Dempsey, have perfectly described the situation. There is little to say except that Merkel's Germany fervently wishes to control and lead the European Union with the Americans out of Europe. Berlin wants to "dictate" and direct because it is the great economic power and it wants to mark territory in front of Washington "you in your house and I in mine" but to that is added the "goodbye" of the United Kingdom; London prefers to go through financial difficulties rather than belong to a dictatorial club that will not be able - nor knows how - to create the adequate means of defense in this dangerous world and lacks the "political engineering" to unite all Europeans. You may not have noticed, Miss Dempsey, but you have perfectly portrayed a German elite who have switched over to the Chinese (5G-silk road and billion dollar monthly car sales) who would have no problem allying themselves , also, with Russia (Gas). Also, of course, she has portrayed a traitor, Chancellor Merkel, who, with a serious crime of prevarication, has betrayed Washington and deceived all Europeans into joining the ranks of Chinese communism and the Russian autćratas ... You can decorate it and put it on if you like, Miss Dempsey, you are a good writer and you know politics ... but you should not hide that this is the real reason why London escapes from the clutches of Brussels. In short, Merkel and the Germans are playing with two decks of cards. That is usually paid dearly. Will history give a good account of Germany, again ...? That's a good question.
Re: The Good Friday Agreement. I thought that Europeans didn't like America butting into European issues? If England and Ireland want to change the Good Friday Agreement it is up to them. And, Joe Biden should never have expressed that he wanted the UK to stay in the EU. Isn't that what Trump did?
Would very much like to see some oolicy signposts put out by the in-coming Biden-Harris Administration rather than trying to read the future based on footprints from the past... That could considerably extend my sense of relief about the next four years of US- German (+ EU) relations.
Germany only cares about Germany! thats the hard fact it will deal with China if it see's that its in there interest on Jobs, Money, and power. America knows this the rest of the EU are wary of China except Italy and Greece which see an opportunity to grow there trade. The pragmatic British are gone in Europe who see that the Chinese only want to suck in the EU into there trap all 5 eye countries know who they are dealing with, Biden needs to lay down the law on this especially on human rights and the Uighur people the EU is weak on this.
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