For four years, the EU and its member states showed remarkable backbone in their determination to uphold the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. It was not enough to keep the agreement fully alive, but it was more than many—including one (now former) U.S. president—would have expected from the old continent. It’s therefore even more surprising that the Europeans are not now brimming with energy to bring together the world’s two main enemies of the last forty-two years: the Islamic Republic and the United States. Yet, that is exactly what Europe should urgently be doing.
The high hopes associated with the election of U.S. President Joe Biden had already turned into low expectations by his January 20 inauguration. Unlike with his promises to rejoin the Paris Agreement on climate change and reestablish cooperation with the World Health Organization on day one, Biden and his advisers have been clear that Washington will not simply return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which his predecessor left in May 2018. Instead, they expect Iran to come back into compliance first, just as America’s hawks have demanded that Washington must not give away the sanctions leverage created by the previous administration.
The Iranian government, for one, sees things the other way around. For very principled reasons, Tehran is unlikely to make concessions given the deep mistrust that Washington’s unilateral withdrawal has created. After years of maximum pressure from the United States, policymakers in Tehran even speak of compensation for U.S. sanctions—if only to make the point. What’s more, allowing the United States back into the JCPOA includes handing Washington the power to snap back all international sanctions in the future—possibly as soon as 2025, when there may be yet another new president in the White House.
To add urgency to the stalemate, Iran’s nuclear advances keep the clock ticking. Breakout time—the period a country needs to amass enough fissile material for one atomic bomb—is now seriously reduced. That time was calculated to be one year when the JCPOA entered into force in early 2016; five years and two U.S. presidents later, it is estimated to be down to four months. Earlier in February 2021, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had produced low amounts of uranium metal, a component with military use that is banned under the JCPOA. On top of that, hardliners in Iran’s parliament have set a February 21 deadline for some sanctions relief, otherwise the government will be forced to suspend parts of the IAEA’s verification authorities.
Against this backdrop of both increased stakes and heightened difficulties, the Europeans need to outline a common course with the Biden administration—and fast. Yet, they again appear to be waiting for the United States to take the initiative. Of course, they had to let the new U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, enter office before officially reaching out to him. A first conversation between the British, French, and German foreign ministers and Blinken took place on February 5.
However, with weeks rather than months to come up with a concrete proposal, the Europeans could have made a more forceful attempt to put the EU in the driver’s seat. Oddly enough, it was Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif who called on the EU as the chair of the JCPOA’s Joint Commission, which monitors the accord’s implementation, to mediate a U.S. return to the deal. Not only could this proposal have come from Brussels itself, but the wrong person also responded to the call: French President Emmanuel Macron suggested himself as an “honest broker.”
The Europeans don’t need the U.S. secretary of state to draft a to-do list for them. Instead, they should channel their frustration over Iran’s diversion from the JCPOA into concrete demands and timelines for a sequenced return to full compliance by all signatories. In this context, it doesn’t hurt—and, indeed, it would bolster the EU’s role as a neutral mediator—to remind Washington of the need to make the first move. This could be the simple but highly symbolic revocation of the May 2018 executive order that sealed Washington’s withdrawal, and it could be done by Biden when he speaks on February 19 at this year’s virtual Munich Security Conference.
Moreover, it doesn’t suffice for Europe to work behind the scenes; Europe has to win the public discourse, especially given the hardening of debates in both Tehran and Washington. Therefore, the Europeans should press all partners on the delivery of humanitarian aid by boosting the near-defunct Instex trade channel and greenlighting the pandemic relief loan Tehran requested from the International Monetary Fund. And they should explore avenues for regional de-escalation by mulling broader talks—not about Iran’s nuclear program but about the security concerns all sides have, from missiles and militias to drones and domestic unrest.
Precisely because the beef is mainly between the United States and Iran, Europe has a role to play as a go-between. The Europeans should do so in close consultation with Washington, but not at the latter’s behest. Europe can’t hide, and it has little time to lose.
Correction: The piece misspelled the name of the secretary of state. It is Antony, not Anthony.
Comments(6)
This writer is under the delusion that the JCPOA will bring the Middle East some semblance of order. Nothing could be further from the truth. The JCPOA is a road map to a nuclear weapons' agenda for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the UAE. Within this decade under the sunset clauses of the Iran nuclear deal, the revolutionary regime in Tehran will posses a "nuclear weapons breakout capacity of mere days". These aren't my words, but those of Barack Obama. Now the Biden Administration assesses breakout time (at this very moment) to be four months. What good is the JCPOA if Iran can turn on its nuclear program at the literal "drop of a hat". And this was accomplished without any of the nuclear sunset clauses "kicking-in". France, under Macron, wants to engage the Gulf states and Israel into any future agreement on a new JCPOA. Obviously Paris doesn't believe the current nuclear deal is any good because no one in the region of the Middle East believes it's any good (of course with the exception of Iran). In fact, Biden and Blinken want to "lengthen and strengthen" the JCPOA. So why return to the original deal in the first place? It makes no sense. Bottom line --everyone seems to agree that we need a new deal. But without "maximum pressure" (economic sanctions) and a very credible US military option, Iran will have absolutely zero intention to negotiate. They've said so themselves. Iran loves the JCPOA because it allows them (legally) an industrial level nuclear program by 2030. Henry Kissinger maintains that it is a certainty that a return to such a flawed program will cause a Middle East nuclear arms race. How can such a development bring order to the region? But then there is the real probability that as the sunset clauses expire, Israel will strike Iran's nuclear facilities and trigger a regional war. No one wants this scenario; but no one wants a nuclear arms race in the Middle East or Iran with a nuclear weapons breakout capability of "mere days". Furthermore, its not in the interest of either the US or the Western Alliance to push an appeasement policy toward Iran on either the Gulf states or Israel. And make no mistake, a simple return to the JCPOA will be viewed within the region as nothing less than Iran appeasement. China already has deep linkages with both Israel (Eilat and the Port of Haifa) and the Gulf states. The same is true of Russia. Iran appeasement could cause a strategic regional re-evaluation. With the JCPOA anything is possible.
Europe has always been with Iran's enemies: whether with Saddam Hussein arming British, French and German weapons, whether with Israel, or with Mr. Trump under Maximum pressure from the United States or Mr. Bush threatening ... . It was only during Mr. Obama's time that it came into play not as an action, but as a reaction to American demand, but with the end of American demand, the reaction came to an end. Europe has taken small and free steps to understand and be friends with Iran. No bird flies with one wing and most people living in Iran no longer wait for foreign wings. This is not good news for peace.
So sorry to learn your high hopes were reduced to low expectations in the blink of an eye, evidently even before the new U.S. President took office. And why such gloom? Because Biden might listen to all sides, including some "hawks" who believe that smart negotiations should include using the leverage that sanctions bring against an outlaw regime. Seriously? Only Iran is permitted to use leverage to continue its policies of developing ballistic missile capability and terrorizing not just its own citizens but those of the wider region? Come on, pull up your big boy pants and understand how a powerful nation like the U.S. must utilize every tool at its disposal to help its adversaries understand what is inside the parameters of a rules-based international order that must be enforced against criminal actors. Given that you seem unsure, nukes in the hands of mullahs is a bad idea, missiles that can reach Europe is a bad idea, engaging in terrorism that kills thousands is a bad idea. By the way, before you focus on anything else, learn the name of the U.S. Secretary of State.
rules-based international order and Iran in the same paragraph is an oxymoron. There are no rules in the Koran where it concerns spreading Islam. The Persians will use any means at its disposal. Israel's military power is the thing stopping it from achieving its goals besides the fact that the mullahs in power hate Jews because the rabbis didn't acknowledge Muhammad as a prophet.
The Nuclear deal is now a dud, Iran has diverged in every way from the rules Trump has also spoilt it as soon as he got elected. The only way to hold Iran is strong sanctions until they stop enrichment of weapons grade material. That looks unlikely as the Europeans are weak on holding a strong line, as Iran has broken out of the rules too many times, the Americans now will just see whats happening now as a total mess, there needs to be a unity approach with UK and EU countries along with Russia and Chinese agreement but trust now is totally gone with the US and Iran. It now looks like Iran will get nuclear weapons this will now cause a mad dash by Saudi Arabia to also get them, Israel will likely say to Biden we need to clean Iran of these weapons as they are a monstrous threat to our state. Iran has stated it wished to wipe Israel of the map years ago and this could spark a new middle eastern war, this mess is toxic just now hopefully peaceful cool heads can fix it.
Iran will stop at nothing to spread Shia. Israel stands in the way. Nothing short of Israel destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities will stop them. The fact is the EU is afraid of its Muslim residents and will not help Jews. The JCPOA is a farce. Israel will soon be bombing the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missle production sites and the Sunnis are helping them.
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