With the recent escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean, the European Union has reached a watershed moment.
The retrenchment of the United States from Europe and even from the Middle East had already created a window for the EU to assert itself as the key actor in conflict management and settlement in and around Europe’s neighborhood.
Now, the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean is a real opportunity to demonstrate the coming of age of the EU as a credible foreign policy actor.
Yet by the same token, a divided and ineffective EU will show that, under the circumstances, these aspirations remain nothing but a romantic objective.
So far, the EU has had real difficulty in reaching a common position in terms of how to address the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean where Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus are in conflict over the control of undersea energy resources.
Nicosia’s threat to block the EU’s slated Belarus sanctions has only raised the stakes for the EU.
The hardliners led by France, Greece, and Cyprus have defended a strong and reactionary EU policy with targeted sanctions against Turkey. Their claim rests on the assumption that Turkey has violated the national sovereignty of Greece and Cyprus by engaging in seismic research and drilling in the exclusive economic zones of these two EU member states.
The combative rhetoric of the Turkish leadership combined with an excessive reliance on hard-power tactics has, in the meantime, helped entrench the perception in European public opinion of Turkey as the aggressor.
Yet in reality, this assumption is very difficult to defend.
First and foremost, the allegation that the area of operation of the Turkish gas research vessel Oruç Reis overlays the continental shelf of Greece rests on the claim that the continental shelf of the Greek island of Kastellorizo—situated two kilometers off the southern coast of Turkey with a total surface area of less than 10 square kilometers—covers 40,000 square kilometers.
That is how Greece ends up with an extensive maritime boundary to the detriment of Turkey, the country with the longest seashore in the whole of the Mediterranean.
It is true that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, islands do have continental shelves. But the convention formalizes the right to claim a continental shelf, not the scope of it.
In reality, the size of the continental shelf of an island is dependent on many factors, such as its population, its proximity to the mainland, and its level of residual economic activity.
To counter the Greek claims, Turkey advanced its own hypothetical map for the partition of the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey’s version of the Mare Nostrum—the Mediterranean—as formalized by the Turkey-Libya maritime-border agreement of November 2019 grants no continental shelf nor exclusive economic zone to the Greek islands.
Rhodes and Crete are awarded only 6 nautical miles of territorial waters. An argument that would be difficult to defend for most islands—with the exception of Kastellorizo—but easier to understand given that the dispute has now turned into a battle of maximalist narratives.
Further to the east, the ongoing political division of Cyprus creates yet another layer of complications.
The existence of two different state structures—with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus recognized internationally only by Turkey—leads to conflicting claims over the rights of hydrocarbon exploration in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus.
Turkey also contests the right of Greek Cypriots to commercialize offshore gas resources in the absence of a prior agreement over the fair distribution of these revenues between the island’s Turkish and Greek communities.
Yet one more time, the EU hardliners’ position makes no concessions to the realities on the ground. As if the Greek Cypriots had not torpedoed the 2004 referendum on the UN’s Annan Plan for reunification, which would have settled the Cyprus question once and for all.
And as if the main stumbling point to any real progress since then had not been the Greek Cypriots’ refusal to recognize the political equality of the Turkish Cypriots. Turkey’s maneuvers are in reality a reaction to the consequences brought about by the strategic mistake that enabled Cyprus to become an EU member despite its ongoing political division.
Cognizant of these facts, German Chancellor Angela Merkel strived to position Germany as a mediator and reposition the EU as a credible facilitator.
Upon Berlin’s initiative, high-level delegations from Turkey and Greece met in July 2020, a first since bilateral talks were suspended in 2016 in the wake of the botched military coup in Turkey.
The aim of German diplomacy is to create the conditions for Ankara and Athens to resolve their many disputes directly or, alternatively, to reach an agreement over a framework that can ultimately be submitted to international adjudication. It is no coincidence that both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis have called for direct negotiations as the way forward.
Yet Germany’s efforts are undermined by its own EU ally, France.
By blindly supporting the Greek position and sending its own warships and fighter planes to the region, Paris has not only contributed to the militarization of the conflict but is also damaging the prospects of negotiations by incentivizing the hardliners in Greece and in Turkey.
In Ankara, French President Emmanuel Macron’s statements are read as an unconditional acknowledgment of the Greek position that the sole source of the conflict is Turkey’s unwillingness to accept Greek sovereignty over the Eastern Mediterranean. His statements are also used to justify the argument that the EU can have no role in the management of this dispute.
After so many years of striving to build up its foreign policy credentials, the EU faces—over the Eastern Mediterranean—a real test of its ambitions and capabilities as an effective foreign policy actor.
And the outcome will be determined by whether Germany’s proclivity to neutralism and smart diplomacy can overcome France’s aspirations for unilateralism and hard-power confrontation.
Comments(11)
Off course what mr. Ulgen, being Turkish, deliberately omits to address in his article is the fact that Turkey openly disputes the sovereignty of Greek islands and threatens Greece with a casus beli in case Greece extends its water boundaries to 12 nautical miles, a unilateral right recognized by UNCOLS. As to Cyprus, Turkey preserves an occupying armed force in its northern part, which Turkey refuses to withdraw despite Security Council resolutions. So, who do you think is the aggressor here?
The continental shelf and gas drilling issues are only elements, even minor ones, of a wider problem: the wish of Turkey to establish its influence on the Southern part of the Mediterranean, politically, ideologically (its islamist way as interpreted by the Dyanet) and military. That comes on top of a complete denial of international law in Syria. For a NATO member, this is not acceptable. That explains the French reaction much more than the dispute with Greece.
With Germany and France at odds on what to do here in support of Cyprus and Greece, Turkey can basically divide and conquer which they will do after assessing the situation over coming weeks. The EU as a whole are not picking up on Germany's take of mediating and France's aggressive defensive stance so they are at sixes and sevens on what to do. They have the same problem with Belarus no clear line on both. Britain is also a problem with brexit they do not have the gumption to take the UK to court on its internal market bill so far, they are jumping up and down but know they both need a deal and if they start legal action it will make things far worse. The EU is seen as a paper tiger they shirk confrontation even when they are morally right, this column written lays out all the differences between the 27 notably France and Germany the others are very quiet only Poland and the Baltics are on song the rest are not bothered. The Navalny poisoning is another problem they are pussyfooting on there's no direction from this mob in Brussels I cant see any solutions here oh! what to do when you don't have a clue.
"Yet Germany’s efforts are undermined by its own EU ally, France." This is NOT factual the negociations organised by Germany were NOT stopped by any intervention of France, but by the refusal of Greece to negotiate as long as the turkish exploration vessel, accompanied by turkish warships stayed in an area internationally recognised as greek. The international treaties, as they stand should indeed be adapted to the geographical situation of Turkey, of the greek islands, and consider vthe special situation of Cyprus. This should be solved diplomatically now that Turkey has 'powerfully' raised the issue. The author also writes: "By blindly supporting the Greek position and sending its own warships and fighter planes to the region, Paris has not only contributed to the militarization of the conflict but is also damaging the prospects of negotiations by incentivizing the hardliners in Greece and in Turkey." Again, this is not factual. Turkey has militarised the conflict by sending an exploration vessel surrounded by warships. This has nothing to do with France. Indeed, France has objected to this agressive move by supporting the greek position. This would be easily fixed if Turkey would withdraw its warships. Turkish arguments on the access to natural ressources have merit. They are weakened by the distorted presentation of the author.
According to international law no activity is perlmitted in disputed terriories i.e drilling etc. consequently who is applying hard-poewr politics ?
The problem in the Med also includes the advancement of Chinese and Russian influence which long term is a greater threat. Ed Houlihan Ridgewood, NJ
It drowned its FP before this its currently sunk.
The European Union is a spent 'nation' and is falling apart at the seams. Many more member states are considering their future and considering following the UK.
In your article you seem to fail to understand (or mention) that resolution of Maritime economic zones issues is not the target if the Turkish government. These issues could be easily resolved in an international arbitration court, as Greece has been proposing for years. Turkey knows that although Kastelorizo will not be granted full rights ( as Greece accepted in similar cases with Italy and Egypt) , the area allocated to Turkey will be a portion of the proclaimed " Blue motherland" . Thus, it throws on the negotiating table Greek sovereignty issues, that no Greek government could accept to discuss. The obvious goal is to try to drag the Greeks to discuss issues like “grey areas” and “minority issues” with a torrent of bellicose statements and a demonstration of force.
It is not only Greece, Greek Cypriots, and France who are putting on an unacceptable thesis that the Turks have no rights but to throw their fishnets into the Mediterranean, Egypt and Israel, too, for their own interests, have joined the chorus. They are barking up the wrong tree, though, having the longest coastline along Eastern Mediterranean, the Turks are not going to play their game. Common sense should prevail here. Angela Merkel seems to have some understanding of this reality.. Mrs. Erkin Baker
Europe has a disfunctional foreign policy that evolves around Germany's economic interests. With China and Russia moving north in Africa there will be pressure on all the countries in the southern Med regional to recognize their economic and military power. Likewise as China moves west across the Middle East to Europe's doorsteps influence they are building in Greece and Italy as two examples will also have an impact on the region to the determent of the EU and NATO as the US evaporates from the scene. Ed Houlihan Ridgewood, NJ USA edmho@yahoo.com
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